What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 5 Oct 2026.
Over 564 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Sunderland drew 163 where the draw model expected 148.7 from those particular fixtures — about 14 more, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 147.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 08 Feb 2003 → 16 Sep 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 17 Oct 2015 → 16 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 02 Oct 1993 → 18 Dec 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 26 Feb 1994 → 30 Apr 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 15 Oct 2016 → 31 Dec 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 27 Aug 2013 → 23 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 17 Apr 2006 → 13 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 25 Oct 2004 → 01 Jan 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 13 Apr 1997 → 16 Sep 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 18 May 2009 → 27 Sep 2009 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 651 | 172 | 26.4% | 2 | 15 |
| Championship | 552 | 146 | 26.5% | 5 | 14 |
| FA Cup | 365 | 95 | 26.0% | 2 | 6 |
| League Cup | 187 | 42 | 22.5% | 1 | 7 |
| League One | 174 | 59 | 33.9% | 1 | 9 |
| Club Friendlies | 22 | 2 | 9.1% | 7 | 7 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| FA Community Shield | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Europa League | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 11 |
| 2025 | 48 | 15 | 31.3% | 7 |
| 2024 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 2023 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 10 |
| 2022 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2021 | 59 | 15 | 25.4% | 8 |
| 2020 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 2019 | 50 | 21 | 42.0% | 7 |
| 2018 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2017 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2016 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 13 |
| 2015 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 11 |
| 2014 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 9 |
| 2013 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 13 |
| 2012 | 49 | 16 | 32.7% | 7 |
| 2011 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 9 |
| 2010 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 8 |
| 2009 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 12 |
| 2008 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 12 |
| 2007 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 9 |
| 2006 | 48 | 7 | 14.6% | 13 |
| 2005 | 43 | 6 | 14.0% | 11 |
| 2004 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 12 |
| 2003 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 21 |
| 2002 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 7 |
| 2001 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2000 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 1999 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 1998 | 57 | 14 | 24.6% | 10 |
| 1997 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 13 |
| 1996 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 9 |
| 1995 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 11 |
| 1994 | 54 | 19 | 35.2% | 14 |
| 1993 | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | 15 |
| 1992 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1991 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1989 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1984 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1983 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1982 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1981 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1979 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 1 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1975 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1973 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 1972 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1968 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1967 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1965 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1963 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1962 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1960 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1955 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1952 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1939 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1937 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1936 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1934 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1933 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1932 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1930 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1924 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1922 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1913 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1912 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1909 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1905 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1903 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1901 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1900 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1899 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1898 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1897 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1896 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1895 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1894 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1893 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1892 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1891 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1890 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1886 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1885 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1884 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Sunderland
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.3% |
|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 16:45 |
Torreense
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 13:00 |
Bournemouth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 16:45 |
Lech Poznań
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 16:30 |
Sunderland
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:45 |
Sunderland
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Coventry City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 20:00 |
Sunderland
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.9% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 14:00 |
Sunderland
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.3% |
|
| Sun, 30 May 2027 | ||||||
| 30 May 15:00 |
Sunderland
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.