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// Elo ratings 545,188 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,188
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 26.06% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.47% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,635 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 26.06% 26.1% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 24.92% 24.9% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.90% 75–99 — drew 23.63% 23.6% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.94% 100–149 — drew 24.49% 24.5% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.27% 150–199 — drew 23.18% 23.2% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.34% 200–299 — drew 20.07% 20.1% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.05% 300+ — drew 13.47% 13.5% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,202 26.06% 22,135 29.31% 28.79% -1.32%
25–49 72,424 24.92% 21,804 28.79% 28.66% -2.65%
50–74 78,900 23.11% 20,470 28.21% 28.34% -3.41%
75–99 64,625 23.63% 18,577 28.21% 27.90% -2.02%
100–149 86,857 24.49% 29,709 26.90% 26.94% -3.20%
150–199 53,219 23.18% 20,283 25.45% 25.27% -2.70%
200–299 49,713 20.07% 19,156 21.90% 22.34% -5.33%
300+ 22,695 13.47% 8,735 14.49% 16.05% -12.98%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,323 2,336 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,260 2,337 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,252 2,300 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,221 2,245 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,160 2,237 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,148 2,245 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,132 2,203 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,147 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,110 2,110 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,104 2,292 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,099 2,123 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,078 2,168 2026-09-19
13 ENG · Brentford 2,074 2,074 2026-09-18
14 NOR · Viking FK 2,073 2,098 2026-09-20
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,071 2,157 2026-09-20
16 POR · Sporting CP 2,069 2,143 2026-09-19
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,066 2,196 2026-09-20
18 ENG · Bournemouth 2,064 2,079 2026-09-20
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,053 2,136 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,036 2,040 2026-09-20
21 ENG · Chelsea 2,033 2,198 2026-09-18
22 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,031 2,043 2026-09-20
23 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,031 2,057 2026-09-25
24 ITA · AS Roma 2,028 2,072 2026-09-19
25 POR · SL Benfica 2,027 2,073 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,020 2,138 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,017 2,089 2026-09-20
28 ENG · Everton 2,013 2,015 2026-09-19
29 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,011 2,013 2026-09-27
30 ITA · Juventus 2,010 2,204 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
1 FC Bayern München GER 2,323 2,336 1,831 2026-09-18
2 Manchester City ENG 2,260 2,337 2,212 2026-09-20
3 Arsenal ENG 2,252 2,300 2,414 2026-09-19
4 Barcelona ESP 2,221 2,245 2,096 2026-09-19
5 Paris Saint-Germain FRA 2,160 2,237 1,667 2026-09-20
6 Real Madrid ESP 2,148 2,245 2,059 2026-09-20
7 Inter Milan ITA 2,132 2,203 1,829 2026-09-19
8 FK Bodø/Glimt NOR 2,124 2,147 1,396 2026-09-20
9 Brighton & Hove Albion ENG 2,110 2,110 1,968 2026-09-19
10 Liverpool ENG 2,104 2,292 2,529 2026-09-20
11 Borussia Dortmund GER 2,099 2,123 1,612 2026-09-19
12 Aston Villa ENG 2,078 2,168 2,139 2026-09-19
13 Brentford ENG 2,074 2,074 1,957 2026-09-18
14 Viking FK NOR 2,073 2,098 2,246 2026-09-20
15 Manchester United ENG 2,071 2,157 2,472 2026-09-20
16 Sporting CP POR 2,069 2,143 1,492 2026-09-19
17 Bayer Leverkusen GER 2,066 2,196 1,505 2026-09-20
18 Bournemouth ENG 2,064 2,079 1,932 2026-09-20
19 Atlético Madrid ESP 2,053 2,136 1,825 2026-09-20
20 Leeds United ENG 2,036 2,040 2,058 2026-09-20
21 Chelsea ENG 2,033 2,198 2,309 2026-09-18
22 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise BEL 2,031 2,043 385 2026-09-20
23 VfB Stuttgart GER 2,031 2,057 1,424 2026-09-25
24 AS Roma ITA 2,028 2,072 1,710 2026-09-19
25 SL Benfica POR 2,027 2,073 1,621 2026-09-20
26 Newcastle United ENG 2,020 2,138 2,023 2026-09-19
27 Porto POR 2,017 2,089 1,558 2026-09-20
28 Everton ENG 2,013 2,015 2,048 2026-09-19
29 Zenit Saint Petersburg RUS 2,011 2,013 623 2026-09-27
30 Juventus ITA 2,010 2,204 1,868 2026-09-20
31 Midtjylland DEN 1,998 2,048 658 2026-09-19
32 Como 1907 ITA 1,996 2,019 437 2026-09-20
33 Nottingham Forest ENG 1,990 2,052 2,180 2026-09-19
34 Real Betis ESP 1,988 2,009 1,497 2026-09-20
35 PSV Eindhoven NED 1,985 2,093 1,656 2026-09-20
36 Rangers SCO 1,985 2,090 1,803 2026-09-20
37 SC Freiburg GER 1,980 2,007 1,246 2026-09-19
38 Olympique Lyonnais FRA 1,977 2,052 1,598 2026-09-19
39 RB Leipzig GER 1,977 2,153 598 2026-09-20
40 Crystal Palace ENG 1,976 2,105 1,971 2026-09-20
41 Club Brugge KV BEL 1,975 2,029 1,620 2026-09-20
42 Fulham ENG 1,975 2,009 1,946 2026-09-20
43 RC Lens FRA 1,974 2,013 1,363 2026-09-18
44 Celtic SCO 1,973 2,129 1,789 2026-09-20
45 SSC Napoli ITA 1,969 2,167 1,496 2026-09-20
46 AS Monaco FRA 1,964 2,060 1,522 2026-09-18
47 AC Milan ITA 1,963 2,082 1,781 2026-09-20
48 West Ham United ENG 1,957 2,068 1,994 2026-09-19
49 Atalanta BC ITA 1,950 2,113 1,378 2026-09-20
50 Tottenham Hotspur ENG 1,949 2,140 2,267 2026-09-19
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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