What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 148 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Spain drew 37 where the draw model expected 28.9 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 1.7 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 34.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35 | 26 Jun 2008 → 11 Jul 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 25 | 11 Oct 2013 → 13 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 03 Sep 2010 → 12 Nov 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 08 Sep 2018 → 08 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 28 Jun 1959 → 30 Oct 1960 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 02 Sep 2006 → 22 Aug 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 21 Jun 2026 → 29 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 05 Jun 2024 → 14 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 02 Sep 2021 → 29 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 29 May 2016 → 05 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 350 | 94 | 26.9% | 1 | 15 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 133 | 18 | 13.5% | 6 | 10 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 131 | 27 | 20.6% | 0 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup | 75 | 18 | 24.0% | 7 | 7 |
| UEFA European Championship | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 7 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 2 | 5 |
| Confederations Cup | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 1 | 5 |
| Olympic Games | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 1 | 5 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 9 |
| 2025 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 9 |
| 2023 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2021 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2020 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 6 |
| 2017 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 9 |
| 2015 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2014 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 2013 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 6 |
| 2012 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 5 |
| 2011 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 2010 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 11 |
| 2009 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% | 16 |
| 2008 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 8 |
| 2007 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2006 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2005 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2004 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 2 |
| 2003 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2002 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 5 |
| 2001 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2000 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 8 |
| 1999 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1998 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1997 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1996 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 1995 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 1994 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 8 |
| 1993 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1992 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 3 |
| 1991 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1990 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 1989 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1988 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1986 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 1985 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1984 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 1983 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1982 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1980 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 1979 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1978 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1976 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1975 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1972 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1970 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1968 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1967 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1966 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1965 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1961 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1960 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1958 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1953 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1952 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1950 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1947 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1942 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1941 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1934 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1933 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1928 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1924 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 18:45 | Spain | vs | Czechia | – / – / – | 11.1% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Croatia | vs | Spain | – / – / – | 19.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.