▦ FDB4
No-draw streak ‹ back to records
ESP · National Team

Spain

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.
35
non-draws in a row
26 Jun 2008 → 11 Jul 2010
Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected 5.7 across these 35 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected 8.5 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all 1 in 600 for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere 12.70 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.13× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run
Date Home Score Away R Tournament
the draw before the run
22 Jun 2008 Spain 4–2(ft:0–0) Italy D ITL · UEFA European Championship
☆ 26 Jun 2008 Russia 0–3 Spain A ITL · UEFA European Championship
☆ 29 Jun 2008 Germany 0–1 Spain A ITL · UEFA European Championship Final
☆ 20 Aug 2008 Denmark 0–3 Spain A ITL · Friendly
☆ 06 Sep 2008 Spain 1–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 10 Sep 2008 Spain 4–0 Armenia H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 11 Oct 2008 Estonia 0–3 Spain A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 15 Oct 2008 Belgium 1–2 Spain A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 19 Nov 2008 Spain 3–0 Chile H ITL · Friendly
☆ 11 Feb 2009 Spain 2–0 England H ITL · Friendly
☆ 28 Mar 2009 Spain 1–0 Turkey H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 01 Apr 2009 Turkey 1–2 Spain A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 09 Jun 2009 Azerbaijan 0–6 Spain A ITL · Friendly
☆ 14 Jun 2009 New Zealand 0–5 Spain A ITL · Confederations Cup
☆ 17 Jun 2009 Spain 1–0 Iraq H ITL · Confederations Cup
☆ 20 Jun 2009 South Africa 0–2 Spain A ITL · Confederations Cup
☆ 24 Jun 2009 Spain 0–2 United States A ITL · Confederations Cup
☆ 28 Jun 2009 South Africa 2–3 Spain A ITL · Confederations Cup
☆ 12 Aug 2009 North Macedonia 2–3 Spain A ITL · Friendly
☆ 05 Sep 2009 Spain 5–0 Belgium H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 09 Sep 2009 Spain 3–0 Estonia H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 10 Oct 2009 Armenia 1–2 Spain A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 14 Oct 2009 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–5 Spain A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 14 Nov 2009 Spain 2–1 Argentina H ITL · Friendly
☆ 18 Nov 2009 Austria 1–5 Spain A ITL · Friendly
☆ 03 Mar 2010 France 0–2 Spain A ITL · Friendly
☆ 29 May 2010 Spain 3–2 Saudi Arabia H ITL · Friendly
☆ 03 Jun 2010 Spain 1–0 South Korea H ITL · Friendly
☆ 08 Jun 2010 Spain 6–0 Poland H ITL · Friendly
☆ 16 Jun 2010 Spain 0–1 Switzerland A ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 21 Jun 2010 Spain 2–0 Honduras H ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 25 Jun 2010 Chile 1–2 Spain A ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 29 Jun 2010 Spain 1–0 Portugal H ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 03 Jul 2010 Paraguay 0–1 Spain A ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 07 Jul 2010 Germany 0–1 Spain A ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 11 Jul 2010 Netherlands 0–1 Spain A ITL · FIFA World Cup Final
the draw that ended it
11 Aug 2010 Mexico 1–1 Spain D ITL · Friendly

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