What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 135 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Netherlands drew 32 where the draw model expected 27.5 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 31.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 24 Mar 2023 → 16 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 13 Nov 2016 → 26 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 15 Nov 2011 → 16 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 28 Mar 2007 → 24 May 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 14 Dec 1994 → 04 Jun 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 03 Mar 2010 → 11 Jul 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 23 Mar 1994 → 07 Sep 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 18 Sep 1966 → 07 Apr 1968 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 31 Mar 2015 → 29 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 06 Nov 1949 → 06 Jun 1951 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 461 | 117 | 25.4% | 2 | 10 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 143 | 28 | 19.6% | 1 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 126 | 16 | 12.7% | 6 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup | 59 | 16 | 27.1% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA European Championship | 45 | 9 | 20.0% | 4 | 5 |
| UEFA Nations League | 31 | 11 | 35.5% | 0 | 3 |
| Olympic Games | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 0 | 4 |
| Mundialito | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| FIFA 75th Anniversary Cup | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Copa Confraternidad | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2024 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2021 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 5 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2017 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 2016 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 2015 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 2014 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 2013 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 4 |
| 2012 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 12 |
| 2011 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2010 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 11 |
| 2009 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 4 |
| 2008 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 5 |
| 2007 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 10 |
| 2006 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2005 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2004 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 4 |
| 2003 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2002 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2001 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2000 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 1999 | 9 | 7 | 77.8% | 1 |
| 1998 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1996 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1995 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1994 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 11 |
| 1993 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1992 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 1991 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1990 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1989 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 1987 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1986 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1984 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1982 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1981 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1980 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1979 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1974 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 9 |
| 1973 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1972 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1971 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1968 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1966 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1965 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1963 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1962 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1961 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1960 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1959 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1958 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1957 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1955 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1954 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 1953 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1949 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1948 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1946 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1940 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1938 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1937 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1936 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1934 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1933 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1932 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1931 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1928 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1927 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1925 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1924 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1923 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1921 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1919 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1914 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1913 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1911 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1909 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1908 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1907 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1906 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1905 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Netherlands | vs | Serbia | – / – / – | 10.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.