What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 108 matches (Jun 2015 – Oct 2026), Montenegro drew 22 where the draw model expected 24.3 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 25.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 10 Sep 2023 → 06 Jun 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 08 Oct 2016 → 08 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 05 Sep 2025 → 01 Jun 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 08 Jun 2015 → 24 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 18 Nov 2009 → 08 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 16 Nov 2021 → 07 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 10 Sep 2018 → 20 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 11 Oct 2013 → 23 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 17 Nov 2020 → 30 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 11 Sep 2012 → 22 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 61 | 15 | 24.6% | 0 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 8 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 4 | 5 |
| UEFA Nations League | 27 | 3 | 11.1% | 3 | 6 |
| Kirin Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2022 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2021 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2019 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2018 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2017 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2016 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2015 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2013 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2012 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2011 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2009 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 2008 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2007 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1976 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | Montenegro | vs | Armenia | – / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Thu, 12 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 12 Nov 19:45 | Montenegro | vs | Latvia | – / – / – | 22.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.