What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 30 Sep 2026.
Over 117 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), Moldova drew 28 where the draw model expected 22.0 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 26.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 28 Mar 2021 → 03 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 03 Sep 2010 → 11 Nov 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 21 Feb 2019 → 09 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 01 Jun 1996 → 07 Oct 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 20 Apr 1994 → 15 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 06 Jun 2001 → 27 Mar 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 29 Mar 2003 → 20 Nov 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 16 Dec 1999 → 07 Oct 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 22 Mar 2025 → 09 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 08 Jun 2024 → 16 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 111 | 37 | 33.3% | 0 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 76 | 14 | 18.4% | 2 | 8 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 76 | 13 | 17.1% | 1 | 10 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 6 | 23.1% | 0 | 5 |
| Malta International Tournament | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Jordan International Tournament | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2024 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2023 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 6 |
| 2021 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 2020 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2019 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 2018 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 2017 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2016 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2015 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2014 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2013 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2012 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2011 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2010 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2009 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2007 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2006 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2005 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2004 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2003 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2002 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2001 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2000 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1999 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1998 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1997 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1996 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1995 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1994 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1992 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 14:00 | Kazakhstan | vs | Moldova | – / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Moldova | vs | Slovakia | – / – / – | 14.2% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.