What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 145 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Iceland drew 34 where the draw model expected 29.8 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 33.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 04 Jun 2011 → 14 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 06 Oct 2016 → 08 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 05 Sep 2020 → 04 Jun 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 16 Oct 2023 → 09 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 27 Jul 2000 → 02 Jun 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 14 Oct 2024 → 10 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 13 Oct 2015 → 06 Jun 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 12 Sep 2007 → 28 May 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 21 Aug 2002 → 20 Aug 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 20 Apr 1994 → 16 Nov 1994 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 233 | 49 | 21.0% | 2 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 122 | 23 | 18.9% | 2 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 120 | 19 | 15.8% | 5 | 8 |
| UEFA Nations League | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 1 | 6 |
| Malta International Tournament | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA European Championship | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Nordic Championship | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| FIFA World Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Baltic Cup | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Millennium Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2024 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 8 |
| 2023 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2022 | 14 | 8 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 2021 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2020 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2019 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 2017 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 2016 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 2015 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 2014 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2013 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2011 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2010 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2009 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2008 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2007 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2006 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2005 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2004 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2003 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2002 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2000 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1999 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 1998 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1996 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 1995 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1994 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1993 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1992 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1991 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1990 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1989 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1986 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1985 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1984 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1983 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1982 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1980 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1979 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1978 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1976 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1975 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1972 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1968 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 16:00 | Iceland | vs | Bulgaria | – / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Estonia | vs | Iceland | – / – / – | 27.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.