What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 130 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Czechia drew 25 where the draw model expected 27.6 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 30.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 01 Sep 2017 → 17 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 08 Sep 2004 → 16 Nov 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 19 Aug 1998 → 09 Oct 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 08 Feb 2000 → 07 Oct 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 26 May 2006 → 07 Oct 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 02 Jun 2001 → 13 Feb 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 06 Sep 1995 → 14 Jun 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 04 Sep 2020 → 24 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 31 Mar 2015 → 24 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 31 Mar 2004 → 01 Jul 2004 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 128 | 30 | 23.4% | 2 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 85 | 18 | 21.2% | 0 | 14 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 76 | 11 | 14.5% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA European Championship | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 1 | 5 |
| UEFA Nations League | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 2 | 6 |
| FIFA World Cup | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 3 |
| Confederations Cup | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Kirin Cup | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 0 | 1 |
| King Hassan II Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2023 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2021 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 5 |
| 2020 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2019 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2018 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2017 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 2015 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 2014 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2013 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2012 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2011 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2010 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2009 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 2008 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2007 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2006 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 2005 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 2004 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 9 |
| 2003 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2002 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2001 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2000 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 1999 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 1998 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1997 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 8 |
| 1996 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1995 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1994 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 18:45 | Spain | vs | Czechia | – / – / – | 11.1% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | England | vs | Czechia | – / – / – | 11.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.