What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 110 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Azerbaijan drew 28 where the draw model expected 23.2 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 25.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 02 Jun 1996 → 08 Jun 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 07 Sep 2010 → 10 Aug 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 07 Sep 1994 → 11 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 10 Jun 2022 → 27 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 11 Nov 2016 → 08 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 28 Mar 2009 → 10 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 09 Sep 2023 → 22 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 24 Mar 2021 → 01 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 03 Sep 2014 → 07 Jun 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 07 Jun 2024 → 14 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 131 | 41 | 31.3% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 76 | 11 | 14.5% | 5 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 72 | 16 | 22.2% | 4 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 10 | 38.5% | 0 | 4 |
| FIFA Series | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Malta International Tournament | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2024 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2023 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2021 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 7 |
| 2020 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2018 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 |
| 2017 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2016 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2015 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2014 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2013 | 12 | 7 | 58.3% | 1 |
| 2012 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2011 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2010 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2009 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 2008 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 2007 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 6 |
| 2006 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 2004 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2003 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2002 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2001 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2000 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1999 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1998 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1997 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 1996 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1995 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1994 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1993 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1992 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 13:00 | Azerbaijan | vs | Lithuania | – / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.