▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,841 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,841
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 496,160 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.21% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.26% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.55% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,268 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,942 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,125 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,785 25.21% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,884 25.26% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,207 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,448 20.55% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,501 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,307 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,267 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,212 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,155 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,143 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,130 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,113 2,113
10 Liverpool 2,085 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,075 2,162
14 Brentford 2,070 2,070
15 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
16 Bayer Leverkusen 2,063 2,190
17 Manchester United 2,060 2,147
18 Atlético Madrid 2,049 2,134
19 Bournemouth 2,041 2,073
20 Chelsea 2,039 2,185
21 SL Benfica 2,028 2,071
22 VfB Stuttgart 2,027 2,050
23 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
24 AS Roma 2,025 2,070
25 Porto 2,016 2,086
26 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
27 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
28 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,009 2,037
29 Everton 2,002 2,009
30 Juventus 1,992 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,598 teams
Clear
▸ Reset
# Team Rating Peak
14151 Qppis 1,443 1,500
14152 FC Bévilard 1,443 1,500
14153 Belshina Bobruisk 1,443 1,520
14154 Elen Standard 1,443 1,500
14155 Glenmore Dundrum 1,443 1,500
14156 PPV 1,443 1,524
14157 Hornchurch 1,443 1,500
14158 FC Saint-Prex 1,443 1,500
14159 Campobasso 1,443 1,562
14160 Forres Mechanics 1,443 1,524
14161 Banbury United 1,443 1,500
14162 Glamsbjerg 1,443 1,500
14163 Alania Vladikavkaz 1,443 1,534
14164 Dalkeith Thistle 1,443 1,500
14165 Belasica Strumica 1,443 1,502
14166 Trowbridge Town 1,443 1,500
14167 FK Landsås 1,443 1,505
14168 IF Tønsberg-Kameratene 1,443 1,506
14169 FC Windisch 1,443 1,500
14170 Ards 1,443 1,500
14171 Ny-Krohnborg IL 1,443 1,517
14172 VfB Oldenburg 1,443 1,493
14173 Shildon 1,443 1,500
14174 FC ÖMV Stadlau 1,443 1,536
14175 Adana Demirspor 1,443 1,804
14176 LB Châteauroux 1,443 1,611
14177 Tiligul Tiraspol 1,443 1,500
14178 Bjørnevatn IL 1,442 1,500
14179 Apollon Krya Vrysi 1,442 1,507
14180 WSK Kaprun 1,442 1,500
14181 FC Flamatt 1,442 1,500
14182 Enerhiia Nova Kakhovka 1,442 1,500
14183 Åmot IF 1,442 1,500
14184 Døllefjelde Musse IF 1,442 1,500
14185 Skovshoved IF 1,442 1,500
14186 FC Puch 1,442 1,550
14187 Teie IF 1,442 1,519
14188 Växjö Norra IF 1,442 1,500
14189 Valtti/TDJ 1,442 1,500
14190 FC Brig 1,442 1,500
14191 FC Meilen 1,442 1,500
14192 AC Taverne 1,442 1,500
14193 Concordia Elbląg 1,442 1,500
14194 Finnsnes IL 1,442 1,516
14195 Hyllykallion Myrsky 1,442 1,500
14196 Milano Kumanovo 1,442 1,500
14197 Newport (IOW) 1,442 1,512
14198 STPS 1,442 1,507
14199 Skjetten SK 1,442 1,540
14200 Oppsal IF 1,442 1,500
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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