▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,833 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,833
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 496,152 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.21% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.26% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,267 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,939 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,124 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,785 25.21% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,883 25.26% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,207 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,447 20.56% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,500 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,307 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,267 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,212 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,155 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,143 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,130 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,113 2,113
10 Liverpool 2,085 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,075 2,162
14 Brentford 2,070 2,070
15 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
16 Bayer Leverkusen 2,063 2,190
17 Manchester United 2,060 2,147
18 Atlético Madrid 2,049 2,134
19 Bournemouth 2,041 2,073
20 Chelsea 2,039 2,185
21 SL Benfica 2,028 2,071
22 VfB Stuttgart 2,027 2,050
23 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
24 AS Roma 2,025 2,070
25 Porto 2,016 2,086
26 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
27 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
28 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,009 2,037
29 Everton 2,002 2,009
30 Juventus 1,992 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,934 teams
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# Team Rating Peak
13551 Macclesfield Town 1,459 1,582
13552 Granada 74 CF 1,459 1,551
13553 CS Bossièrois 1,459 1,505
13554 South Shore 1,459 1,523
13555 Chesterfield Spital 1,459 1,500
13556 Edirnespor 1,459 1,521
13557 Poole Town 1,459 1,520
13558 Atromitos Piraeus 1,459 1,502
13559 FC Superga (La Chaux-de-Fonds) 1,459 1,526
13560 FC Lutry 1,459 1,500
13561 Figgjo IL 1,459 1,500
13562 Harbin Lange 1,459 1,500
13563 Östansbo IS 1,459 1,500
13564 Ros Bila Tserkva 1,459 1,504
13565 Laufen 1,459 1,577
13566 Turceni 1,459 1,500
13567 Landvetter IS 1,459 1,500
13568 Perpignan 1,459 1,547
13569 Club Necaxa 1,459 1,608
13570 R. FC Etincelle Maurage 1,459 1,540
13571 Melhus IL 1,459 1,515
13572 Racing de Ferrol 1,459 1,616
13573 Flå IL 1,458 1,500
13574 Bridgwater Town 1,458 1,514
13575 FC Tiraspol 1,458 1,510
13576 Harlow Town 1,458 1,529
13577 Kildare 1,458 1,500
13578 Sävast AIF 1,458 1,500
13579 SK Jarl 1,458 1,557
13580 FC Diana 1,458 1,500
13581 VK Zepperen 1,458 1,502
13582 Uzhhorod 1,458 1,503
13583 Dokken 1,458 1,500
13584 Real Ariquemes Esporte Clube 1,458 1,500
13585 Metalul Turnu Severin 1,458 1,500
13586 Wembley 1,458 1,500
13587 Al Safa 1,458 1,500
13588 Florø SK 1,458 1,645
13589 Stormvogels Loppem 1,458 1,523
13590 Storms BK 1,458 1,608
13591 FC Bremgarten 1,458 1,500
13592 Navestad 1,458 1,500
13593 US Lausanne 1,458 1,512
13594 KFUM København 1,458 1,500
13595 Folkestone 1,458 1,505
13596 Morcinek Kaczyce 1,458 1,500
13597 Unia Hrubieszów 1,458 1,500
13598 FC Härkingen 1,458 1,508
13599 IL Fram 1,458 1,521
13600 Dacia Vasile Alecsandri Galați 1,458 1,516
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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