▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,818 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,818
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 496,137 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.21% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.26% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,265 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,936 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,121 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,784 25.21% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,881 25.26% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,204 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,446 20.56% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,500 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,307 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,267 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,212 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,155 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,143 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,130 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,113 2,113
10 Liverpool 2,085 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,075 2,162
14 Brentford 2,070 2,070
15 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
16 Bayer Leverkusen 2,063 2,190
17 Manchester United 2,060 2,147
18 Atlético Madrid 2,049 2,134
19 Bournemouth 2,041 2,073
20 Chelsea 2,039 2,185
21 SL Benfica 2,028 2,071
22 VfB Stuttgart 2,027 2,050
23 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
24 AS Roma 2,025 2,070
25 Porto 2,016 2,086
26 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
27 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
28 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,009 2,037
29 Everton 2,002 2,009
30 Juventus 1,996 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,934 teams
Clear
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# Team Rating Peak
12701 Standard Flawinne FC 1,467 1,500
12702 Laholms FK 1,467 1,509
12703 FC Schaan 1,467 1,512
12704 FC Entfelden 1,467 1,500
12705 Oswaldtwistle Rovers 1,467 1,500
12706 US Giubiasco 1,467 1,520
12707 Perstorps SK 1,467 1,500
12708 FK Tauras 1,467 1,511
12709 Esporte Clube Águia Negra 1,467 1,500
12710 Rebordelo 1,467 1,500
12711 Millenium Giarmata 1,467 1,500
12712 Yeni Sincanspor 1,467 1,500
12713 St Brendan's 1,467 1,500
12714 Emley 1,467 1,500
12715 FC Bettlach 1,467 1,525
12716 Saurcos Fukui 1,467 1,508
12717 Vasalunds IF 1,467 1,531
12718 South Norwood 1,467 1,512
12719 AFC Campus 1,467 1,523
12720 Meise FC 1,467 1,500
12721 CS Vișina Nouă 1,467 1,500
12722 Malahide United 1,467 1,520
12723 Heggedal 1,467 1,500
12724 ES Malley 1,467 1,600
12725 Masis 1,467 1,500
12726 Dynamo Odesa 1,467 1,500
12727 Club Comunicaciones (Buenos Aires) 1,467 1,500
12728 Erzincanspor 1,467 1,532
12729 FC IKHTYS 1,467 1,500
12730 I-Kissat 1,467 1,500
12731 R. Prayon FC 1,467 1,520
12732 Simurq Zaqatala 1,467 1,500
12733 Bjerringbro IF 1,467 1,512
12734 Kyoto Shiko 1,467 1,500
12735 Redditch United 1,467 1,500
12736 SC Lambusart-Fleurus 1,467 1,504
12737 Akhtamar 1,467 1,500
12738 Gjerpen IF 1,466 1,500
12739 Corcelles-Cormondrèche 1,466 1,500
12740 Toyama Shinjo 1,466 1,517
12741 Peerder Sportvrienden 1,466 1,500
12742 Arna-Bjørnar 1,466 1,513
12743 IL Sverre 1,466 1,570
12744 BK Viktoria 1,466 1,500
12745 Vindbjart FK 1,466 1,521
12746 ASK St. Valentin 1,466 1,519
12747 Rode Duivels Zoutleeuw 1,466 1,500
12748 Charavgiakos 1,466 1,513
12749 FC Ajoie-Monterri 1,466 1,500
12750 FC Italia Morges 1,466 1,508
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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