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// Elo ratings 545,248 matches rated · 14,931 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,248
Teams rated14,931
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,687 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 13.9% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,063 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,728 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,815 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,386 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,460 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,561 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.61% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.98% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,282 24.61% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,400 19.98% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
9 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
10 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
11 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,595 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
1151 Villarreal CF B ESP 1,538 1,644 213 2026-08-22
1152 Patro Eisden BEL 1,538 1,568 89 2026-08-08
1153 Turun Pallokerho FIN 1,538 1,556 8 2026-03-08
1154 K. FC Diest BEL 1,538 1,580 61 2018-08-05
1155 Eendracht Gerhees Oostham BEL 1,538 1,569 32 1983-08-21
1156 Clube do Remo BRA 1,538 1,579 57 2026-09-19
1157 VPV FIN 1,538 1,538 3 2025-03-29
1158 CS Ocna Mureș ROU 1,537 1,537 5 2022-09-28
1159 Dalian Kewei CHN 1,537 1,543 5 2026-07-21
1160 FK Moskva RUS 1,537 1,540 4 2008-09-09
1161 Kataller Toyama JPN 1,537 1,542 32 2025-07-16
1162 Achilleus Patras GRE 1,537 1,547 20 1949-11-13
1163 RW Walhain CG BEL 1,537 1,559 21 2018-08-05
1164 Tosno RUS 1,537 1,665 32 2018-05-13
1165 Rocar București ROU 1,537 1,545 13 2001-06-16
1166 Union Léopoldbourgeoise BEL 1,537 1,537 2 1926-08-29
1167 Talavera ESP 1,537 1,538 13 2025-12-17
1168 Amica Wronki POL 1,537 1,647 79 2005-11-30
1169 Stal Alchevsk UKR 1,537 1,600 65 2013-08-07
1170 União de Leiria POR 1,537 1,702 546 2026-09-19
1171 SC Sagamihara JPN 1,537 1,537 12 2025-08-27
1172 Dijon FCO FRA 1,537 1,755 756 2026-09-18
1173 OMS Ingelmunster BEL 1,537 1,554 30 2016-08-21
1174 KV Kortrijk BEL 1,537 1,747 728 2026-09-20
1175 Sheriff Tiraspol MDA 1,537 1,626 122 2025-09-09
1176 Almyros Gaziou GRE 1,537 1,551 5 2022-10-20
1177 Newell's Old Boys ARG 1,537 1,653 507 2026-09-20
1178 MiPK FIN 1,537 1,565 7 2025-02-18
1179 SV Boelare Eeklo BEL 1,537 1,550 5 1979-08-26
1180 Aris Athens GRE 1,537 1,566 12 1949-11-20
1181 Union Plaani FIN 1,537 1,537 8 2025-03-29
1182 FC Vítkovice CZE 1,537 1,551 12 1987-10-04
1183 LeKi-Futis FIN 1,537 1,537 11 2025-03-30
1184 Lärje-Angereds IF SWE 1,537 1,538 10 2012-08-18
1185 Sport Club Santa Rita BRA 1,537 1,551 8 2014-09-03
1186 SCM Zalău ROU 1,537 1,549 18 2026-08-12
1187 Wuhan Hongxing CHN 1,537 1,544 14 2016-04-14
1188 CF Os Belenenses POR 1,537 1,685 848 2026-09-19
1189 SVV Damme BEL 1,537 1,538 11 2015-08-09
1190 SKA Rostov-on-Don RUS 1,536 1,550 4 1981-11-04
1191 Minerul Motru ROU 1,536 1,552 11 2015-08-12
1192 Bury ENG 1,536 1,640 1,631 2026-08-01
1193 MuurY FIN 1,536 1,541 8 2026-03-01
1194 Unirea Slobozia ROU 1,536 1,603 105 2026-08-12
1195 Kağıtspor TUR 1,536 1,548 7 1966-02-20
1196 Focșani ROU 1,536 1,566 29 2024-08-28
1197 KFC Zwarte Leeuw BEL 1,536 1,595 81 2021-08-29
1198 KFC Verbroedering Geel BEL 1,536 1,550 81 2014-08-23
1199 FCW Hamme BEL 1,536 1,536 2 2001-08-19
1200 Metalul București ROU 1,536 1,558 43 1980-02-24
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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