▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,733 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,733
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 496,052 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.26% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,250 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,921 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,115 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,773 25.22% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,872 25.26% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,193 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,435 20.56% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,493 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,307 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,253 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,209 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,139 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,130 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,113 2,113
10 Liverpool 2,098 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,075 2,162
14 Brentford 2,070 2,070
15 Manchester United 2,065 2,147
16 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
17 Bayer Leverkusen 2,063 2,190
18 Atlético Madrid 2,049 2,134
19 Bournemouth 2,041 2,073
20 Chelsea 2,039 2,185
21 VfB Stuttgart 2,027 2,050
22 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
23 SL Benfica 2,026 2,071
24 AS Roma 2,024 2,070
25 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037
26 Porto 2,014 2,086
27 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
28 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
29 Everton 2,007 2,009
30 Juventus 1,996 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,598 teams
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# Team Rating Peak
11301 Keratsini 1,474 1,520
11302 RSD Jette 1,474 1,512
11303 Goma 1,474 1,500
11304 Ålholm IF 1,474 1,500
11305 Recolta Carei 1,474 1,500
11306 Al Thoqbah 1,474 1,502
11307 Farningham 1,474 1,500
11308 ToTe/U23 1,474 1,500
11309 Tooting & Mitcham United 1,474 1,515
11310 A.P. Genève 1,474 1,500
11311 Nysa Zgorzelec 1,474 1,500
11312 R. CS Halanzy 1,474 1,518
11313 Armătura Zalău 1,474 1,509
11314 Huccorgne Sports 1,474 1,500
11315 Kadijk SK Overpelt 1,474 1,500
11316 Svorkmo 1,474 1,500
11317 FC Arizona 1,474 1,500
11318 Nistru Otaci 1,474 1,501
11319 Matlock Town 1,474 1,500
11320 FC Jorat-Mézières 1,474 1,500
11321 Glossop North End 1,474 1,507
11322 Club Sportivo Barracas 1,474 1,500
11323 Turkiyemspor 1,474 1,500
11324 FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1,474 1,511
11325 Greenock Morton 1,474 1,701
11326 Morsø 1,474 1,500
11327 Wick Academy 1,474 1,523
11328 FC LaPa/2 1,474 1,502
11329 Olympia Recht 1,474 1,500
11330 Peremoha 1,474 1,500
11331 Mitsubishi Nagasaki 1,474 1,509
11332 Galvez Esporte Clube 1,474 1,508
11333 Lillestrømkameratene 1,474 1,500
11334 Digenis Akritas Morphou 1,474 1,500
11335 Delfino Pescara 1936 1,474 1,682
11336 Flamura Roşie Buhuşi 1,474 1,508
11337 Åsen 1,474 1,500
11338 Exc.Veldwezelt 1,474 1,500
11339 Shanghai Huajiao 1,474 1,500
11340 RUOR Yerevan 1,474 1,500
11341 Landstraßer AC Wien 1,474 1,513
11342 KFC Hever 1,474 1,500
11343 Dijkse Boys 1,474 1,502
11344 FC Bazenheid 1,474 1,500
11345 Lyngbø SK 1,474 1,512
11346 Takada FC 1,474 1,512
11347 SC Golling 1,474 1,500
11348 Luceafărul Oradea 1,474 1,528
11349 Paradies Feuerthalen 1,474 1,501
11350 Ilves/3 1,474 1,537
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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