▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,660 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,660
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,979 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.26% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,237 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,909 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,103 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,766 25.22% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,862 25.26% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,185 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,429 20.56% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,488 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,253 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,209 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,139 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,127 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103
10 Liverpool 2,098 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,077 2,162
14 Brentford 2,068 2,068
15 Manchester United 2,065 2,147
16 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
17 Bournemouth 2,058 2,073
18 Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190
19 Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134
20 VfB Stuttgart 2,027 2,050
21 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
22 SL Benfica 2,026 2,071
23 AS Roma 2,024 2,070
24 Chelsea 2,022 2,185
25 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037
26 Porto 2,014 2,086
27 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
28 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
29 Everton 2,007 2,009
30 Juventus 1,996 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,598 teams
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# Team Rating Peak
11151 A.E. Sparta P.A.E. 1,475 1,534
11152 Post SV Wien 1,475 1,500
11153 SK Rapid 1,474 1,551
11154 Trachones 1,474 1,500
11155 VK Eendracht Peizegem 1,474 1,500
11156 Nacional Futebol Clube (Amazonas) 1,474 1,547
11157 Pagchaniakos 1,474 1,500
11158 CS Păulești 1,474 1,556
11159 DOS Utrecht 1,474 1,500
11160 Amonines FC 1,474 1,500
11161 Nagoya Pharmaceutical College 1,474 1,500
11162 AS Melfi 1,474 1,500
11163 Konyaspor KIF 1,474 1,500
11164 Leek Town 1,474 1,516
11165 FC Oftringen 1,474 1,500
11166 Helena Nowy Sącz 1,474 1,500
11167 Brandon United 1,474 1,500
11168 Dreadnought 1,474 1,511
11169 Herts Rangers 1,474 1,515
11170 IL Hei 1,474 1,500
11171 Strindheim IL 1,474 1,663
11172 Râmnicu Sărat 1,474 1,526
11173 FC Cudrefin 1,474 1,500
11174 Spartak Kajaani 1,474 1,500
11175 Workmen's Club 1,474 1,522
11176 Black Star FC 1,474 1,500
11177 VC Osta Meerbeke 1,474 1,500
11178 FC Sirnach 1,474 1,500
11179 Noravank 1,474 1,503
11180 Gjerdrum IL 1,474 1,500
11181 IK Zenith 1,474 1,509
11182 PEF 1,474 1,500
11183 Włodawianka Włodawa 1,474 1,500
11184 Haugerud 1,474 1,500
11185 Humaitá 1,474 1,500
11186 Courense 1,474 1,500
11187 Anagennisi Kolindros 1,474 1,500
11188 LUV Graz 1,474 1,525
11189 Voința Cetate 1,474 1,500
11190 Leixlip United 1,474 1,500
11191 Dagsbergs IF 1,474 1,508
11192 Internacional de Madrid 1,474 1,500
11193 SV Bad Ischl 1,474 1,500
11194 1. FC Magdeburg II 1,474 1,526
11195 Associação Desportiva Ferroviária Vale do Rio Doce 1,474 1,500
11196 1. St. Pöltener SC 1,474 1,503
11197 Explorări Câmpulung Moldovenesc 1,474 1,500
11198 Wath Athletic 1,474 1,500
11199 Drangedal IL 1,474 1,500
11200 Sarreguemines 1,474 1,509
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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