▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,651 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,651
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,970 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,236 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,907 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,103 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,763 25.22% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,860 25.25% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,184 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,429 20.56% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,488 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,253 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,209 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,139 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,127 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103
10 Liverpool 2,098 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,077 2,162
14 Brentford 2,068 2,068
15 Manchester United 2,065 2,147
16 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
17 Bournemouth 2,058 2,073
18 Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190
19 Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134
20 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
21 SL Benfica 2,026 2,071
22 AS Roma 2,024 2,070
23 Chelsea 2,022 2,185
24 VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050
25 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037
26 Porto 2,014 2,086
27 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
28 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
29 Everton 2,007 2,009
30 Juventus 1,996 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,598 teams
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# Team Rating Peak
11101 Caurom Cernăuți 1,475 1,500
11102 Czarni Radom 1,475 1,503
11103 Midland Athletic Dublin 1,475 1,500
11104 K. Flandria Dorne 1,475 1,500
11105 Nîmes Olympique 1,475 1,761
11106 Bülach 1,475 1,548
11107 Innsbrucker SK 1,475 1,523
11108 FC Courfaivre 1,475 1,500
11109 Aylesbury United 1,475 1,503
11110 Minguettes Vénissieux 1,475 1,502
11111 FC Wabern 1,475 1,500
11112 Żyrardowianka Żyrardów 1,475 1,500
11113 NSÍ Runavík 1,475 1,500
11114 Sportunion Vöcklamarkt 1,475 1,500
11115 Granica Lubycza Królewska 1,475 1,500
11116 RLC Bastogne 1,475 1,530
11117 FC Gumefens/Sorens 1,475 1,512
11118 ES Villance 1,475 1,500
11119 K. Zonnekloppers Dentergem 1,475 1,500
11120 Racing Rioja 1,475 1,514
11121 Blovstrød 1,475 1,500
11122 R. FC Ecaussinois 1,475 1,500
11123 Piauí Esporte Clube 1,475 1,500
11124 Olympiakos Nicosia 1,475 1,515
11125 Brålanda IF 1,475 1,500
11126 KFC Eendracht Borgt-Strombeek 1,475 1,500
11127 Vestre Gran IL 1,475 1,500
11128 Blagnac 1,475 1,500
11129 SV Hall 1,475 1,520
11130 Assyriska BK 1,475 1,518
11131 PaRi/A 1,475 1,500
11132 Victoria Zalău 1,475 1,500
11133 Viitorul Gheorgheni 1,475 1,500
11134 FC POHU/4 1,475 1,500
11135 R. FC Ressaix 1,475 1,511
11136 Vito 1,475 1,500
11137 Foivos Kremasti 1,475 1,500
11138 K. Daring Club Leuven 1,475 1,548
11139 Maynooth University Town 1,475 1,516
11140 Fjell 1,475 1,500
11141 FC Glovelier 1,475 1,500
11142 KeuPa/2 1,475 1,500
11143 Drwęca Nowe Miasto Lubawskie 1,475 1,523
11144 Olympic Club Nismes 1,475 1,500
11145 Qingdao Elite United 1,475 1,500
11146 Al Qurayyat 1,475 1,500
11147 Ruch Zdzieszowice 1,475 1,545
11148 Aer Lingus 1,475 1,500
11149 São Raimundo Esporte Clube (Amazonas) 1,475 1,500
11150 A.E. Sparta P.A.E. 1,475 1,534
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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