▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,651 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,651
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,970 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,236 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,907 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,103 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,763 25.22% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,860 25.25% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,184 23.72% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,429 20.56% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,488 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,253 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,248 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,209 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,139 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,127 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103
10 Liverpool 2,098 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,077 2,162
14 Brentford 2,068 2,068
15 Manchester United 2,065 2,147
16 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
17 Bournemouth 2,058 2,073
18 Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190
19 Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134
20 Leeds United 2,026 2,033
21 SL Benfica 2,026 2,071
22 AS Roma 2,024 2,070
23 Chelsea 2,022 2,185
24 VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050
25 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037
26 Porto 2,014 2,086
27 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
28 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
29 Everton 2,007 2,009
30 Juventus 1,996 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,934 teams
Clear
▸ Reset
# Team Rating Peak
11001 Home Farm Everton 1,476 1,508
11002 SCM Râmnicu Vâlcea 1,476 1,500
11003 FC Blustavia (Solothurn) 1,476 1,500
11004 Fujian Tianxin 1,476 1,500
11005 Hednesford Town 1,476 1,518
11006 AD San Juan 1,476 1,500
11007 SC Marchtrenk 1,476 1,501
11008 SV Gmunden 1,476 1,517
11009 FC Star (Mendrisio) 1,476 1,500
11010 Ilves A 1,476 1,500
11011 Palokan Riento/A 1,476 1,500
11012 K. FC Herenthout 1,476 1,515
11013 Union St-Gérard 1,476 1,500
11014 RCS Ohain 1,476 1,500
11015 IL Flint 1,476 1,500
11016 KSC Mechelen 1,476 1,500
11017 ŁKS Łódź 1,476 1,641
11018 Loon Plage FC 1,476 1,500
11019 Saint Denis FC 1,476 1,500
11020 Broager UI 1,476 1,500
11021 Yoshino Club 1,476 1,500
11022 Yxnerums IF 1,476 1,500
11023 US Monte Carasso 1,476 1,506
11024 Åby IF 1,476 1,500
11025 FC Leuzigen 1,476 1,500
11026 Östavalls IF 1,476 1,500
11027 FC Hägendorf 1,476 1,500
11028 Kauklahden Pyrintö 1,476 1,509
11029 Nazillispor 1,476 1,500
11030 FC Walenstadt 1,476 1,521
11031 Fåberg 1,476 1,500
11032 Chabab 1,476 1,500
11033 Aulum IF 1,476 1,500
11034 Viry-Chatillon 1,476 1,500
11035 FC Birr 1,476 1,500
11036 Liverpool Stanley 1,476 1,500
11037 SV Feldbach 1,476 1,500
11038 Fukuyama University 1,476 1,500
11039 Unirea Bascov 1,476 1,514
11040 Bamble 1,476 1,500
11041 Procyon BK 1,476 1,500
11042 Bexley United 1,476 1,500
11043 Andorra CF 1,476 1,500
11044 FC Bastia-Borgo 1,476 1,500
11045 Ethnikos Heraklion 1,476 1,500
11046 FC Turku-82 1,476 1,500
11047 HA85 Silkeborg 1,476 1,500
11048 Pilgrims 1,476 1,514
11049 College Corinthians 1,476 1,500
11050 FK Zeta 1,476 1,518
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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