▦ FDB4
// Elo ratings 545,631 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,631
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,950 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.71% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,232 27.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,904 26.31% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,101 25.02% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,759 25.22% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,856 25.25% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,183 23.71% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,427 20.56% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,488 13.96% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328
2 Manchester City 2,253 2,331
3 Arsenal 2,244 2,293
4 Barcelona 2,209 2,243
5 Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231
6 Real Madrid 2,139 2,237
7 Inter Milan 2,127 2,202
8 FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143
9 Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103
10 Liverpool 2,098 2,285
11 Borussia Dortmund 2,084 2,116
12 Viking FK 2,083 2,097
13 Aston Villa 2,077 2,162
14 Brentford 2,068 2,068
15 Manchester United 2,065 2,147
16 Sporting CP 2,064 2,145
17 Bournemouth 2,058 2,073
18 Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190
19 Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134
20 Leeds United 2,030 2,033
21 SL Benfica 2,026 2,071
22 AS Roma 2,024 2,070
23 Chelsea 2,022 2,185
24 VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050
25 Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037
26 Porto 2,014 2,086
27 Newcastle United 2,014 2,141
28 Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011
29 Everton 2,007 2,009
30 Juventus 1,996 2,200
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak
1 Spain 2,312 2,312
2 England 2,195 2,195
3 Argentina 2,190 2,200
4 France 2,157 2,210
5 Portugal 2,087 2,088
6 Morocco 2,075 2,106
7 Brazil 2,039 2,212
8 Colombia 2,033 2,115
9 Switzerland 2,033 2,033
10 Japan 2,026 2,064
11 Netherlands 2,023 2,177
12 Belgium 2,018 2,175
13 Norway 1,973 2,053
14 Germany 1,965 2,254
15 Mexico 1,965 2,054
16 Italy 1,957 2,095
17 Nigeria 1,949 1,962
18 Australia 1,936 2,002
19 Senegal 1,924 1,991
20 Croatia 1,923 2,036
21 United States 1,923 2,011
22 Ecuador 1,919 1,980
23 Austria 1,917 1,957
24 Algeria 1,911 1,961
25 Uruguay 1,909 2,056
26 Denmark 1,909 2,018
27 Paraguay 1,905 1,905
28 South Korea 1,901 1,986
29 Iran 1,900 2,017
30 Canada 1,878 2,010
All rated teams 14,934 teams
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# Team Rating Peak
10251 Ballymun United 1,479 1,500
10252 Manacor 1,479 1,500
10253 Edsbyns IF 1,479 1,502
10254 KuPS 2 1,479 1,500
10255 Alviks IK 1,479 1,500
10256 Atlas Copco IF 1,479 1,500
10257 Avanhard Merefa 1,479 1,508
10258 Dubbeldam 1,479 1,500
10259 Wisła II Kraków 1,479 1,500
10260 Vågå 1,479 1,500
10261 Frontiera Curtici 1,479 1,500
10262 Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1,479 1,525
10263 FC Mels 1,479 1,510
10264 Harstad IL 1,479 1,552
10265 Mestre 1,479 1,508
10266 Cristalul Dorohoi 1,479 1,500
10267 FC Krukan 1,479 1,500
10268 SV Deutschkreutz 1,479 1,508
10269 FC La Neuveville 1,479 1,513
10270 Eendracht VV Genenbos 1,479 1,518
10271 SK Kasterlee 1,479 1,509
10272 Yıldırım Bosnaspor 1,479 1,500
10273 Lytham 1,479 1,500
10274 Great Yarmouth Town 1,479 1,500
10275 Severnav Turnu Severin 1,479 1,500
10276 R. Racing FC Montegnée 1,479 1,550
10277 Hoogland 1,479 1,500
10278 IFK Haninge 1,479 1,500
10279 FC Gams 1,479 1,500
10280 Rossendale United 1,479 1,508
10281 Thurrock 1,479 1,500
10282 Larisaikos 1,479 1,500
10283 Çatalcaspor 1,479 1,511
10284 Rygene IL 1,479 1,500
10285 Stavanger IF Fotball 1,479 1,633
10286 Am. du Personnel Municipal Metz 1,479 1,500
10287 LaVe/KPR 1,479 1,531
10288 LKS Stara Wieś 1,479 1,500
10289 United Koreans in Japan 1,479 1,514
10290 Maldon & Tiptree 1,479 1,512
10291 Arenas Club 1,479 1,500
10292 Nunspeet 1,479 1,500
10293 Abatorul Slobozia 1,479 1,500
10294 Espérance Genève 1,479 1,507
10295 Derincespor 1,479 1,500
10296 Opphaug 1,479 1,500
10297 Vic Le Comte 1,479 1,500
10298 SV Ludesch 1,479 1,500
10299 SV Rümlang 1,479 1,500
10300 FC Excelsior Kessel 1,479 1,500
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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