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// Elo ratings 545,221 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,221
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,668 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,870 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,057 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,726 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,813 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,160 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,383 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,456 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
25 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,016 2,050 2026-09-25
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
851 VSK Aarhus DEN 1,554 1,570 24 2025-09-23
852 JaPS/M35 FIN 1,554 1,585 6 2023-05-21
853 Bursaspor TUR 1,554 1,853 1,010 2025-10-29
854 Grasshopper Club U-21 SUI 1,554 1,567 8 2002-11-10
855 Patronato ARG 1,554 1,573 236 2023-07-25
856 Juventus Zürich SUI 1,554 1,567 44 1975-09-28
857 Cantonal Neuchâtel SUI 1,554 1,589 126 1969-08-02
858 ŠK Slovan Bratislava SVK 1,554 1,691 178 2026-09-09
859 Boluspor TUR 1,554 1,602 95 2026-03-03
860 Unión de Santa Fe ARG 1,554 1,614 448 2026-09-19
861 Pontedera ITA 1,554 1,591 323 2026-04-26
862 Riga FC LVA 1,554 1,564 16 2025-10-04
863 Ceramika Opoczno POL 1,554 1,588 18 2003-07-29
864 R. Géants Athois BEL 1,554 1,581 20 2014-08-23
865 Olsa Brakel BEL 1,554 1,588 54 2021-02-03
866 San Lorenzo ARG 1,554 1,706 530 2026-09-20
867 AC Allianssi FIN 1,554 1,572 6 2005-10-10
868 Rijo Shukyu-Dan JPN 1,554 1,574 7 1927-10-30
869 SK Terjoden-Welle BEL 1,554 1,556 14 2014-08-02
870 Defensa y Justicia ARG 1,554 1,713 441 2026-09-18
871 Pöxyt/TNT FIN 1,553 1,564 7 2026-03-01
872 Orlando City SC USA 1,553 1,673 449 2026-09-27
873 Amed TUR 1,553 1,572 51 2026-09-20
874 Union Wels AUT 1,553 1,553 14 1983-10-26
875 R. RC Gent BEL 1,553 1,579 101 2021-08-29
876 Team Aargau U21 SUI 1,553 1,553 8 2001-09-15
877 Casa Pia AC POR 1,553 1,679 161 2026-09-20
878 KSK Beveren BEL 1,553 1,771 559 2026-09-20
879 KÍ Klaksvík FRO 1,553 1,570 38 2025-09-09
880 SalPa FIN 1,553 1,553 17 2025-04-16
881 LA Galaxy USA 1,553 1,677 556 2026-09-27
882 Real Madrid Castilla ESP 1,553 1,617 210 2026-08-20
883 HIFK Helsinki FIN 1,553 1,634 260 2025-04-12
884 Al-Ahli KSA 1,553 1,645 110 2026-09-11
885 Seregno Calcio 1913 ITA 1,553 1,563 40 2022-04-24
886 Victoria București ROU 1,553 1,577 45 1989-08-19
887 Cuneo ITA 1,553 1,556 74 2019-05-04
888 Pallokerho-35 FIN 1,553 1,571 4 2023-04-26
889 Bilzerse Waltwilder BEL 1,553 1,561 12 2018-08-11
890 YRKV Mechelen BEL 1,553 1,569 7 2013-12-04
891 Hallescher FC GER 1,553 1,625 446 2026-09-26
892 Viktoria Žižkov CZE 1,552 1,575 16 2003-08-19
893 FAC Team für Wien AUT 1,552 1,559 17 2015-04-07
894 Sânmartin ROU 1,552 1,576 12 2020-11-28
895 Royal Albert Quévy-Mons BEL 1,552 1,562 10 2018-08-27
896 Gossau SUI 1,552 1,586 99 2009-09-19
897 Gröndals IK SWE 1,552 1,555 10 2010-03-27
898 FC Roskilde DEN 1,552 1,598 35 2025-09-17
899 SK Austria Klagenfurt AUT 1,552 1,725 173 2026-07-24
900 Jammerbugt FC DEN 1,552 1,567 21 2022-08-02
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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