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// Elo ratings 545,604 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,604
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,923 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.71% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,227 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,900 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,097 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,757 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,853 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,179 23.71% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,423 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,681 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.50% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.37% 25.4% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.90% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.86% 25.9% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.58% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.92% 19.9% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,179 27.50% 0 — — —
25–49 5,077 25.37% 0 — — —
50–74 5,115 26.90% 0 — — —
75–99 4,618 25.86% 0 — — —
100–149 8,299 24.58% 0 — — —
150–199 6,447 23.11% 0 — — —
200–299 8,423 19.92% 0 — — —
300+ 6,523 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,312 2,312 2026-10-06
2 ENG · England 2,195 2,195 2026-10-06
3 ARG · Argentina 2,190 2,200 2026-10-06
4 FRA · France 2,157 2,210 2026-10-05
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,075 2,106 2026-10-04
7 BRA · Brazil 2,039 2,212 2026-10-03
8 COL · Colombia 2,033 2,115 2026-10-06
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,033 2,033 2026-10-06
10 JPN · Japan 2,026 2,064 2026-09-28
11 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
12 BEL · Belgium 2,018 2,175 2026-10-05
13 NOR · Norway 1,973 2,053 2026-10-04
14 GER · Germany 1,965 2,254 2026-10-04
15 MEX · Mexico 1,965 2,054 2026-10-06
16 ITA · Italy 1,957 2,095 2026-10-05
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,949 1,962 2026-10-06
18 AUS · Australia 1,936 2,002 2026-09-29
19 SEN · Senegal 1,924 1,991 2026-10-04
20 CRO · Croatia 1,923 2,036 2026-10-06
21 USA · United States 1,923 2,011 2026-10-06
22 ECU · Ecuador 1,919 1,980 2026-09-24
23 AUT · Austria 1,917 1,957 2026-10-04
24 ALG · Algeria 1,911 1,961 2026-10-06
25 URU · Uruguay 1,909 2,056 2026-10-06
26 DEN · Denmark 1,909 2,018 2026-10-04
27 PAR · Paraguay 1,905 1,905 2026-10-02
28 KOR · South Korea 1,901 1,986 2026-10-06
29 IRN · Iran 1,900 2,017 2026-09-29
30 CAN · Canada 1,878 2,010 2026-10-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
7651 Chornomorets-2 Odesa UKR 1,486 1,500 5 1994-09-05
7652 Molaikos GRE 1,486 1,500 1 2022-08-31
7653 PeKa/2 FIN 1,486 1,512 2 2011-02-14
7654 KFC Excelsior Bouwel BEL 1,486 1,500 1 2018-07-28
7655 Königlicher Honsfelder SV BEL 1,486 1,500 1 2018-07-29
7656 Torns IF SWE 1,486 1,524 20 2024-07-02
7657 Mo IL NOR 1,486 1,613 96 2018-04-18
7658 FC Vrije Mannen Oosterlo BEL 1,486 1,500 2 1964-08-09
7659 Kyoto University of Education JPN 1,486 1,500 1 1954-05-22
7660 Rafinăria Câmpina ROU 1,486 1,500 1 1959-03-08
7661 Okocimski KS Brzesko POL 1,486 1,532 38 2015-07-18
7662 BTOP Hokkaido JPN 1,486 1,516 3 2025-05-25
7663 Oikonomos Tsaritsani GRE 1,486 1,500 5 2018-09-05
7664 SG SV Neuhofen/SV Ried Reserves AUT 1,486 1,500 1 2009-07-28
7665 SV Wildert BEL 1,486 1,500 2 1983-07-31
7666 FCK Marry Gold Kumamoto JPN 1,486 1,500 1 2022-05-21
7667 Ryoyo Club JPN 1,486 1,500 1 1930-02-08
7668 Needham Market ENG 1,486 1,500 1 2022-11-05
7669 Teruel ESP 1,486 1,521 9 2026-08-22
7670 US Chauvigny FRA 1,486 1,500 4 2025-12-21
7671 Chemal Brzeźnica POL 1,486 1,508 2 1995-08-23
7672 Cesena ITA 1,486 1,687 898 2026-09-18
7673 Lincoln Ramblers ENG 1,486 1,500 1 1887-10-15
7674 FSV Optik Rathenow GER 1,486 1,501 2 2014-08-16
7675 FC Morat/FC Murten SUI 1,486 1,500 1 1989-09-02
7676 FC Elsum Geel BEL 1,486 1,500 2 1981-08-09
7677 Anhui Litian CHN 1,486 1,508 3 2015-05-13
7678 MLHF FIN 1,486 1,518 8 2026-02-22
7679 LKS Luboń POL 1,486 1,500 2 1993-08-25
7680 Toyota Shūkyūdan JPN 1,486 1,500 1 2013-08-31
7681 JOS NED 1,486 1,500 2 2014-09-24
7682 Cuiavia Start Inowrocław POL 1,486 1,508 3 2012-07-18
7683 Polonia Olimpia Elbląg POL 1,486 1,509 2 2002-09-11
7684 Rasensport St.Gallen SUI 1,486 1,500 1 1937-08-29
7685 Chester St Oswald's ENG 1,486 1,500 1 1887-10-15
7686 LZS Grudynia Wielka POL 1,486 1,512 4 1984-08-05
7687 Silves POR 1,486 1,500 2 2025-11-23
7688 Fünfhaus Wien AUT 1,486 1,500 1 1946-02-10
7689 Agigea ROU 1,486 1,500 2 2026-07-29
7690 Hutnik II Kraków POL 1,486 1,508 2 1987-08-05
7691 Calvo Sotelo ESP 1,486 1,500 1 2021-12-02
7692 Kauno Žalgiris LTU 1,486 1,515 8 2025-09-09
7693 Capivariano Futebol Clube BRA 1,486 1,515 4 2015-05-06
7694 Estanciano Esporte Clube BRA 1,486 1,500 2 2016-04-21
7695 SKN St. Pölten II AUT 1,486 1,500 1 2010-08-13
7696 RoU FIN 1,486 1,500 3 2005-08-24
7697 Druzhba Berdiansk UKR 1,486 1,512 6 1995-10-15
7698 Grazer AK Amateure AUT 1,486 1,515 5 2003-08-26
7699 FC Sint-Jozef Londerzeel BEL 1,486 1,500 1 2014-07-27
7700 Zwaluwen Olmen BEL 1,486 1,511 6 2018-08-05
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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