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// Elo ratings 545,213 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,213
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,660 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,870 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,056 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,725 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,812 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,160 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,378 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,456 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
25 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,016 2,050 2026-09-25
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
651 Bukovyna Chernivtsi UKR 1,579 1,591 70 2026-09-19
652 Sorrento ITA 1,579 1,593 119 2026-04-26
653 Servette FC Genève SUI 1,579 1,627 65 2025-10-04
654 EC Juventude BRA 1,579 1,606 205 2026-08-04
655 Xanthi GRE 1,579 1,739 1,007 2021-10-27
656 Trelleborgs FF SWE 1,579 1,649 107 2026-03-08
657 Örebro SK SWE 1,578 1,719 389 2026-03-28
658 Basel U-21 SUI 1,578 1,598 11 2002-11-09
659 FC Petržalka SVK 1,578 1,605 40 2008-09-09
660 Carl Zeiss Jena GER 1,578 1,629 660 2026-09-25
661 Carpi ITA 1,577 1,715 389 2026-08-09
662 Al Qadsiah KSA 1,577 1,580 62 2026-09-11
663 Spartak Nalchik RUS 1,577 1,618 2 2013-06-03
664 Paganese ITA 1,577 1,577 169 2022-04-24
665 Évian Thonon Gaillard FRA 1,576 1,742 248 2016-05-13
666 Chesterfield ENG 1,576 1,678 1,885 2026-09-26
667 FK Mladá Boleslav CZE 1,576 1,594 44 2024-12-19
668 San Diego FC USA 1,575 1,668 68 2026-09-27
669 Pisa SC ITA 1,575 1,674 511 2026-09-20
670 KSC Lokeren OV BEL 1,575 1,617 12 2016-11-30
671 New York City USA 1,575 1,666 446 2026-09-27
672 Notts County ENG 1,574 1,696 2,031 2026-09-19
673 Ruch Chorzów POL 1,574 1,657 401 2025-09-25
674 Víkingur Reykjavík ISL 1,574 1,581 24 2025-09-09
675 Hajduk Split CRO 1,574 1,656 207 2025-09-09
676 Vanløse IF DEN 1,573 1,585 31 2025-09-02
677 ÅIFK FIN 1,573 1,573 24 2025-04-17
678 SC Farense POR 1,573 1,592 394 2026-09-20
679 Modena ITA 1,573 1,696 892 2026-09-20
680 Coritiba BRA 1,573 1,603 414 2026-09-20
681 Kjelsås Fotball NOR 1,573 1,648 240 2026-09-16
682 TuPS FIN 1,573 1,601 22 2025-03-29
683 PK-35 FIN 1,573 1,573 7 2025-06-10
684 Chongqing Tonglianglong CHN 1,573 1,618 37 2026-09-06
685 CD Tenerife ESP 1,573 1,699 1,296 2026-09-26
686 Clube de Regatas Brasil BRA 1,573 1,577 55 2026-05-14
687 V&V Overpelt-Fabriek BEL 1,572 1,572 59 2017-08-26
688 USL Dunkerque FRA 1,572 1,672 211 2026-09-18
689 Royal Excel Mouscron BEL 1,572 1,717 604 2021-10-26
690 Greifswalder FC GER 1,572 1,590 81 2026-09-25
691 Gozzano ITA 1,572 1,599 53 2026-08-12
692 Portovyk Illichivsk UKR 1,572 1,572 17 2001-09-16
693 Bnei Yehuda ISR 1,572 1,583 30 2019-11-04
694 Córdoba CF ESP 1,571 1,659 882 2026-09-27
695 FC Sochaux-Montbéliard FRA 1,571 1,831 1,183 2026-09-18
696 Club Atlético Tigre ARG 1,571 1,650 439 2026-09-21
697 Hapoel Be'er Sheva ISR 1,571 1,611 55 2026-09-16
698 Nykøbing FC DEN 1,571 1,611 31 2025-08-05
699 Sūduva Marijampolė LTU 1,571 1,594 48 2019-11-04
700 IK Brage SWE 1,571 1,608 75 2026-03-28
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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