What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 135 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Turkey drew 31 where the draw model expected 28.6 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 31.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 06 Sep 2013 → 10 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 10 Oct 2009 → 17 Nov 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 29 Feb 2012 → 16 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 26 Mar 2026 → 02 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 19 Nov 2024 → 15 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 09 Oct 1968 → 16 Nov 1969 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 11 Oct 2021 → 14 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 22 Mar 2019 → 11 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 13 Jun 2002 → 16 Oct 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 25 Mar 1992 → 24 Feb 1993 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 293 | 81 | 27.7% | 2 | 10 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 147 | 28 | 19.1% | 2 | 7 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 128 | 31 | 24.2% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 27 | 6 | 22.2% | 3 | 4 |
| UEFA European Championship | 23 | 2 | 8.7% | 5 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 5 |
| Balkan Cup | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 0 | 2 |
| Confederations Cup | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Olympic Games | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Kirin Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2024 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2021 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2020 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 2 |
| 2019 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2018 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 2017 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2016 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 2015 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2014 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 2011 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2009 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2008 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 6 |
| 2007 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2006 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 7 |
| 2005 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2004 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2003 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 6 |
| 2002 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 9 |
| 2001 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2000 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1999 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 3 |
| 1998 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1997 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1996 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 8 |
| 1995 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 7 |
| 1994 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1992 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1991 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1989 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1985 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1984 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 1983 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1982 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1979 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1976 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1975 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1974 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1973 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1972 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1970 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1968 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1966 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1965 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 1964 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1963 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1961 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1955 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1953 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1924 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1923 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | Italy | vs | Turkey | – / – / – | 24.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.