What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 113 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Lithuania drew 24 where the draw model expected 22.1 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 26.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 06 Sep 2006 → 15 Oct 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 11 Nov 2020 → 12 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 18 Aug 1999 → 28 Feb 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 02 Apr 2003 → 18 Aug 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 08 Jun 2018 → 22 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 07 Sep 2010 → 10 Aug 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 11 Feb 2009 → 14 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 25 May 1994 → 15 Mar 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 06 Sep 2024 → 21 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 10 Jun 2019 → 17 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 163 | 32 | 19.6% | 2 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 89 | 19 | 21.3% | 4 | 7 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 74 | 12 | 16.2% | 1 | 9 |
| Baltic Cup | 67 | 16 | 23.9% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Nations League | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | 0 | 6 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 3 |
| Malta International Tournament | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Four Nations Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Olympic Games | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2023 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2021 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 12 |
| 2020 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2018 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 8 |
| 2017 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2016 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2015 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2014 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2013 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2012 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2011 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2010 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 2008 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 10 |
| 2007 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 2006 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2005 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2004 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2003 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 9 |
| 2002 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2000 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1999 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1998 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1997 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 4 |
| 1996 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1995 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1994 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1993 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| 1992 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1979 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1966 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1945 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1940 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1937 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1936 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1935 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1934 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1932 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1931 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1930 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1929 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1927 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 13:00 | Azerbaijan | vs | Lithuania | – / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.