What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 108 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), Kazakhstan drew 23 where the draw model expected 21.7 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 24.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 13 Jun 2022 → 11 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 06 Feb 2008 → 03 Mar 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 09 Sep 2024 → 10 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 21 Feb 2004 → 07 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 20 Mar 2000 → 07 Oct 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 09 Oct 2021 → 06 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 16 Oct 2012 → 10 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 11 Nov 2016 → 05 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 19 Nov 2018 → 11 Jun 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 06 Jun 1997 → 12 Sep 1997 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 82 | 23 | 28.1% | 1 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 76 | 16 | 21.1% | 0 | 10 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 55 | 8 | 14.5% | 11 | 11 |
| UEFA Nations League | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 1 | 5 |
| AFC Asian Cup qualification | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Asian Games | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 | 1 |
| East Asian Games | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| King's Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| WAFF Championship | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2025 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2021 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2020 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 2019 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 5 |
| 2018 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2017 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2016 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2015 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 2014 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2013 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2012 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2011 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2010 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2008 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 2007 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2006 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2005 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2004 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2003 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2002 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2001 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2000 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 1996 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1995 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1994 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1979 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 14:00 | Kazakhstan | vs | Moldova | – / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 14:00 | Kazakhstan | vs | Faroe Islands | – / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.