What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 135 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Italy drew 33 where the draw model expected 27.4 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 31.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 22 Nov 1975 → 25 Jan 1978 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 11 Nov 2020 → 02 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 20 Nov 2018 → 18 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 22 Sep 1993 → 23 Jun 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 14 Jun 1966 → 22 Mar 1967 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 06 Jun 2025 → 26 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 14 Jun 2022 → 18 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 12 Sep 2007 → 09 Jun 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 22 Jun 2004 → 26 Mar 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 13 Nov 1999 → 24 Jun 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 396 | 111 | 28.0% | 2 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 128 | 31 | 24.2% | 0 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 126 | 32 | 25.4% | 0 | 10 |
| FIFA World Cup | 83 | 21 | 25.3% | 3 | 5 |
| UEFA European Championship | 49 | 19 | 38.8% | 1 | 5 |
| Central European International Cup | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Nations League | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 2 | 4 |
| Olympic Games | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 4 |
| Confederations Cup | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| USA Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Tournoi de France | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Inter-Allied Games | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Scania 100 Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Mundialito | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| CONMEBOL–UEFA Cup of Champions | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 3 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2021 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 10 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2018 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 2017 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 2016 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 7 |
| 2015 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 6 |
| 2014 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 18 | 10 | 55.6% | 3 |
| 2012 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2011 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2010 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 2009 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 2008 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 4 |
| 2007 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2006 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2005 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 4 |
| 2004 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 7 |
| 2003 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 2002 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 2001 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2000 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 8 |
| 1999 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 1 |
| 1998 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1997 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1996 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1995 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1994 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 7 |
| 1993 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1992 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1991 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1990 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 1989 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1987 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1985 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1984 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1983 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1982 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 5 |
| 1981 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 7 |
| 1977 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1976 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1975 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1974 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1972 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1970 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1969 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1967 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1966 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1965 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1962 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 |
| 1961 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1960 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1955 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1953 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1949 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1942 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1940 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1938 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1937 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1936 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1935 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 3 |
| 1933 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1932 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1931 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1930 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1928 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1927 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1926 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1925 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1924 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1923 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1920 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1919 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1912 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1911 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 18:45 | France | vs | Italy | – / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | Italy | vs | Turkey | – / – / – | 24.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.