What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 115 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Belarus drew 29 where the draw model expected 25.4 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 26.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 27 Mar 2021 → 03 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 24 Mar 2007 → 06 Feb 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 20 Mar 2025 → 12 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 15 Nov 2018 → 09 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 05 Jan 1997 → 11 Oct 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 09 Nov 2016 → 12 Jun 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 17 Aug 2005 → 28 Feb 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 29 Mar 2000 → 11 Oct 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 17 Nov 2022 → 19 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 15 Aug 2012 → 14 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 134 | 38 | 28.4% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 77 | 16 | 20.8% | 2 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 72 | 14 | 19.4% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 11 | 42.3% | 0 | 3 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Malta International Tournament | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| King's Cup | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2016 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2014 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2013 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2012 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2011 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 2010 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2009 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 2008 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 2007 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 2006 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2005 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2004 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2003 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2002 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2001 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2000 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1999 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1998 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1996 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1995 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1994 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1992 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1979 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1967 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 16:00 | Belarus | vs |
|
– / – / – | — |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Belarus | vs | Finland | – / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.