Match 03 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC
ITL · UEFA Nations League · 2026
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Belarus San Marino Calcio What it means
N — no-draw run 0 2 matches in a row without a draw
Max N 13 2 this team's longest run ever
E — draw debt 0.00 0.00 expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50 30.0% 0.0% draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100 24.0% 0.0% draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all time 25.6% 0.0% share of every match drawn
Draw score 0.078 0.000 the predictor ranking score
Rank 1,722 — position in that ranking

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
Belarus 1,567
San Marino Calcio 1,486
Rating gap +141 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 24.6% 100–149 · 8,282 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 2.14 – 0.98 home – away
Home win 63.5%
Draw 20.8% every level score added up
Away win 15.8%
Both together · the blend
Blended draw chance 21.7% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap
Goals model said 20.8% form only
This Elo gap said 24.6% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.