What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 107 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Armenia drew 22 where the draw model expected 22.0 from those particular fixtures — about 0 fewer, or 0.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 24.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 04 Jun 2011 → 14 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 28 May 2016 → 05 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 11 Oct 2021 → 27 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 01 Apr 2009 → 03 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 07 Jun 1995 → 30 Jun 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 16 Oct 2002 → 18 Feb 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 06 Sep 2025 → 29 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 21 Nov 2023 → 10 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 26 Mar 2013 → 11 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 17 Oct 2007 → 26 Mar 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 81 | 20 | 24.7% | 0 | 6 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 78 | 17 | 21.8% | 6 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 76 | 15 | 19.7% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Nations League | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | 3 | 6 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 3 |
| Malta International Tournament | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2023 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2021 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2020 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2017 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2016 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2015 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2014 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2013 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2012 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2011 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2010 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2009 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2008 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2007 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2006 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 2005 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2004 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2003 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2002 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2001 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2000 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1999 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1996 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1995 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1994 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1992 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1979 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | Montenegro | vs | Armenia | – / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Thu, 12 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 12 Nov 17:00 | Armenia | vs | Cyprus | – / – / – | 27.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.