What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 30 Sep 2026.
Over 116 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Albania drew 22 where the draw model expected 24.9 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 26.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 1 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 30 May 1990 → 09 Sep 1992 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 18 Aug 2004 → 03 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 04 Sep 2025 → 29 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 14 Oct 2018 → 14 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 30 Apr 2003 → 31 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 02 Sep 2000 → 05 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 08 Jun 2021 → 26 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 05 Sep 2016 → 02 Sep 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 14 Dec 1996 → 21 Jan 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 14 May 1994 → 16 Aug 1995 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 123 | 16 | 13.0% | 5 | 10 |
| Friendly | 121 | 30 | 24.8% | 3 | 7 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 109 | 26 | 23.8% | 0 | 8 |
| UEFA Nations League | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 2 | 4 |
| Balkan Cup | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 0 | 4 |
| UEFA European Championship | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 3 |
| Malta International Tournament | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Prime Minister's Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 5 |
| 2023 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2022 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 2021 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 8 |
| 2020 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2017 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2016 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 2015 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2014 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2013 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2011 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2010 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2009 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2008 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2007 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 2006 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2005 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2004 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2003 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 2002 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2001 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1999 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1996 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1995 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1994 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1993 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1992 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1991 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1990 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1983 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1981 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1947 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1946 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 13:00 | Finland | vs | Albania | – / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Albania | vs |
|
– / – / – | — |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.