Match 06 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC
ITL · UEFA Nations League · 2026
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The models forecast for this fixture
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Albania San Marino Calcio What it means
N — no-draw run 12 2 matches in a row without a draw
Max N 14 2 this team's longest run ever
E — draw debt 2.45 0.00 expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50 24.0% 0.0% draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100 18.0% 0.0% draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all time 21.0% 0.0% share of every match drawn
Draw score 0.548 0.000 the predictor ranking score
Rank 55 — position in that ranking

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
Albania 1,701
San Marino Calcio 1,486
Rating gap +275 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 20.0% 200–299 · 8,400 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 2.18 – 0.73 home – away
Home win 70.3%
Draw 19.1% every level score added up
Away win 10.6%
Both together · the blend
Blended draw chance 19.3% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap
Goals model said 19.1% form only
This Elo gap said 20.0% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.