Paul Tierney
Over 434 matches (Aug 2007 – Oct 2026), Paul Tierney drew 109 where the draw model expected 112.7 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 114.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · Premier League | 199 | 47 | 23.6% |
| ENG · Championship | 99 | 27 | 27.3% |
| ENG · League Two | 59 | 17 | 28.8% |
| ENG · League One | 58 | 13 | 22.4% |
| ENG · National League | 19 | 5 | 26.3% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| 2025/26 | 22 | 7 | 31.8% |
| 2023/24 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% |
| 2022/23 | 31 | 6 | 19.4% |
| 2021/22 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% |
| 2020/21 | 23 | 9 | 39.1% |
| 2019/20 | 27 | 5 | 18.5% |
| 2018/19 | 27 | 1 | 3.7% |
| 2017/18 | 27 | 6 | 22.2% |
| 2016/17 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% |
| 2015/16 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% |
| 2014/15 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% |
| 2013/14 | 29 | 9 | 31.0% |
| 2011/12 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% |
| 2010/11 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% |
| 2009/10 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% |
| 2008/09 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
| 2007/08 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | Everton | 0–2 | Chelsea | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Arsenal | 2–1 | Leeds United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Millwall | 2–2 | West Ham United | D | ENG · Championship |
| 05 Sep 2026 | Manchester City | 1–0 | Coventry City | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Middlesbrough | 3–1 | West Bromwich Albion | H | ENG · Championship |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Everton | 2–0 | Crystal Palace | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 18 May 2026 | Arsenal | 1–0 | Burnley | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 10 May 2026 | Nottingham Forest | 1–1 | Newcastle United | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 02 May 2026 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1–1 | Sunderland | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Brentford | 0–0 | Fulham | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Manchester United | 1–2 | Leeds United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Aston Villa | 2–0 | West Ham United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Chelsea | 0–1 | Newcastle United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2–2 | Arsenal | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 11 Feb 2026 | Manchester City | 3–0 | Fulham | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 02 Feb 2026 | Sunderland | 3–0 | Burnley | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 19 Jan 2026 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1–1 | Bournemouth | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Bristol City | 0–2 | Preston North End | A | ENG · Championship |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Portsmouth | 2–1 | Charlton Athletic | H | ENG · Championship |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Manchester City | 3–0 | West Ham United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Ipswich Town | 3–0 | Coventry City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 21 Nov 2025 | Preston North End | 1–2 | Blackburn Rovers | A | ENG · Championship |
| 07 Nov 2025 | Watford | 1–1 | Bristol City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Sheffield Wednesday | 1–2 | Oxford United | A | ENG · Championship |
| 11 Oct 2025 | Northampton Town | 1–2 | Rotherham United | A | ENG · League One |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Reading | 1–1 | Mansfield Town | D | ENG · League One |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Crewe Alexandra | 2–1 | Notts County | H | ENG · League Two |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Cheltenham Town | 0–3 | Oldham Athletic | A | ENG · League Two |
| 12 May 2024 | Manchester United | 0–1 | Arsenal | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 05 May 2024 | Liverpool | 4–2 | Tottenham Hotspur | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Bournemouth | 3–0 | Brighton & Hove Albion | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 20 Apr 2024 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0–2 | Arsenal | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Chelsea | 6–0 | Everton | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 06 Apr 2024 | Crystal Palace | 2–4 | Manchester City | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Aston Villa | 2–0 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 02 Mar 2024 | Nottingham Forest | 0–1 | Liverpool | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Arsenal | 4–1 | Newcastle United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 19 Feb 2024 | Everton | 1–1 | Crystal Palace | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 03 Feb 2024 | Sheffield United | 0–5 | Aston Villa | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Liverpool | 4–1 | Chelsea | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Arsenal | 5–0 | Crystal Palace | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 30 Dec 2023 | Luton Town | 2–3 | Chelsea | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 26 Dec 2023 | Burnley | 0–2 | Liverpool | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Manchester City | 2–2 | Crystal Palace | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 10 Dec 2023 | Fulham | 5–0 | West Ham United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 02 Dec 2023 | Nottingham Forest | 0–1 | Everton | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 12 Nov 2023 | Liverpool | 3–0 | Brentford | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Manchester United | 0–3 | Manchester City | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 25 Oct 2023 | Stoke City | 1–0 | Leeds United | H | ENG · Championship |
| 21 Oct 2023 | Bournemouth | 1–2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | A | ENG · Premier League |