B Toner
Over 356 matches (Aug 2013 – Oct 2026), B Toner drew 90 where the draw model expected 98.0 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 96.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · League Two | 138 | 45 | 32.6% |
| ENG · League One | 136 | 23 | 16.9% |
| ENG · Championship | 41 | 16 | 39.0% |
| ENG · National League | 41 | 6 | 14.6% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% |
| 2025/26 | 27 | 8 | 29.6% |
| 2024/25 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% |
| 2023/24 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% |
| 2022/23 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% |
| 2021/22 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% |
| 2020/21 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% |
| 2019/20 | 22 | 9 | 40.9% |
| 2018/19 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% |
| 2017/18 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% |
| 2016/17 | 27 | 9 | 33.3% |
| 2015/16 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% |
| 2014/15 | 21 | 4 | 19.0% |
| 2013/14 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | Reading | 1–0 | Leyton Orient | H | ENG · League One |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Shrewsbury Town | 1–0 | Bristol Rovers | H | ENG · League Two |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Oldham Athletic | 0–0 | Accrington Stanley | D | ENG · League Two |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Cambridge United | 1–1 | AFC Wimbledon | D | ENG · League One |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday | 0–0 | Stockport County | D | ENG · League One |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Crawley Town | 1–3 | Cheltenham Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 10 Sep 2026 | Stevenage | 2–1 | Luton Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Port Vale | 0–0 | Crewe Alexandra | D | ENG · League Two |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Leicester City | 1–2 | Burton Albion | A | ENG · League One |
| 02 May 2026 | Bristol City | 2–0 | Stoke City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Birmingham City | 2–1 | Preston North End | H | ENG · Championship |
| 03 Apr 2026 | Charlton Athletic | 1–2 | Bristol City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Southampton | 2–0 | Oxford United | H | ENG · Championship |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Norwich City | 2–1 | Sheffield United | H | ENG · Championship |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Preston North End | 0–2 | Millwall | A | ENG · Championship |
| 24 Feb 2026 | Watford | 0–2 | Ipswich Town | A | ENG · Championship |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Leicester City | 3–4 | Southampton | A | ENG · Championship |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Middlesbrough | 1–0 | Norwich City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Watford | 1–1 | Portsmouth | D | ENG · Championship |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Bristol Rovers | 0–1 | Colchester United | A | ENG · League Two |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Crawley Town | 1–3 | Bromley | A | ENG · League Two |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Birmingham City | 1–1 | Derby County | D | ENG · Championship |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Watford | 1–0 | Stoke City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 09 Dec 2025 | Preston North End | 1–1 | Coventry City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Millwall | 3–2 | Southampton | H | ENG · Championship |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Oxford United | 1–1 | Middlesbrough | D | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Nov 2025 | West Bromwich Albion | 0–0 | Sheffield Wednesday | D | ENG · Championship |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Bolton Wanderers | 1–0 | Cardiff City | H | ENG · League One |
| 21 Oct 2025 | Derby County | 1–0 | Norwich City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Huddersfield Town | 1–2 | Stockport County | A | ENG · League One |
| 01 Oct 2025 | Portsmouth | 2–2 | Watford | D | ENG · Championship |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Sheffield United | 0–1 | Charlton Athletic | A | ENG · Championship |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Oxford United | 2–2 | Leicester City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 06 Sep 2025 | Newport County | 2–3 | Bristol Rovers | A | ENG · League Two |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Chesterfield | 2–2 | Crawley Town | D | ENG · League Two |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Mansfield Town | 2–0 | Blackpool | H | ENG · League One |
| 03 May 2025 | Wycombe Wanderers | 1–3 | Stockport County | A | ENG · League One |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Wrexham | 3–0 | Charlton Athletic | H | ENG · League One |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Crawley Town | 3–1 | Exeter City | H | ENG · League One |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Swansea City | 1–0 | Hull City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Morecambe | 0–2 | Carlisle United | A | ENG · League Two |
| 08 Apr 2025 | Peterborough United | 1–2 | Birmingham City | A | ENG · League One |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Millwall | 2–1 | Portsmouth | H | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Apr 2025 | Port Vale | 2–0 | Bradford City | H | ENG · League Two |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Leeds United | 2–2 | Swansea City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Crawley Town | 1–0 | Bristol Rovers | H | ENG · League One |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Bolton Wanderers | 0–1 | Stockport County | A | ENG · League One |
| 01 Mar 2025 | Birmingham City | 1–0 | Wycombe Wanderers | H | ENG · League One |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Hull City | 1–1 | Norwich City | D | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Sheffield Wednesday | 1–1 | Luton Town | D | ENG · Championship |