How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,494

Teams rated14,934

Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25

Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,907 matches

drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	With odds	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	67,226	27.39%	22,161	29.39%	28.79%	-1.08%
25–49	72,897	26.31%	21,925	28.62%	28.66%	-3.14%
50–74	79,096	25.02%	20,405	28.41%	28.34%	-2.77%
75–99	64,754	25.22%	18,710	28.04%	27.91%	-2.60%
100–149	86,849	25.25%	29,683	26.91%	26.93%	-3.11%
150–199	53,177	23.72%	20,326	25.50%	25.26%	-2.52%
200–299	49,421	20.56%	19,016	21.77%	22.31%	-5.79%
300+	22,487	13.95%	8,643	14.52%	16.00%	-12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,587 matches

drew How often each rating gap actually drew.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	5,166	27.45%	—	—	—
25–49	5,087	25.56%	—	—	—
50–74	5,106	26.87%	—	—	—
75–99	4,610	25.81%	—	—	—
100–149	8,288	24.59%	—	—	—
150–199	6,431	22.97%	—	—	—
200–299	8,405	20.00%	—	—	—
300+	6,494	12.38%	—	—	—

Top clubs by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	GER · FC Bayern München	2,315	2,328	2026-09-18
2	ENG · Manchester City	2,253	2,331	2026-09-20
3	ENG · Arsenal	2,244	2,293	2026-09-19
4	ESP · Barcelona	2,209	2,243	2026-09-19
5	FRA · Paris Saint-Germain	2,154	2,231	2026-09-20
6	ESP · Real Madrid	2,139	2,237	2026-09-20
7	ITA · Inter Milan	2,127	2,202	2026-10-03
8	NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt	2,122	2,143	2026-10-01
9	ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion	2,103	2,103	2026-09-19
10	ENG · Liverpool	2,098	2,285	2026-09-20
11	GER · Borussia Dortmund	2,091	2,116	2026-09-19
12	ENG · Aston Villa	2,077	2,162	2026-10-02
13	NOR · Viking FK	2,072	2,097	2026-10-01
14	ENG · Brentford	2,068	2,068	2026-09-18
15	ENG · Manchester United	2,065	2,147	2026-09-20
16	ENG · Bournemouth	2,058	2,073	2026-09-20
17	GER · Bayer Leverkusen	2,055	2,190	2026-09-20
18	POR · Sporting CP	2,054	2,145	2026-09-19
19	ESP · Atlético Madrid	2,042	2,134	2026-09-20
20	ENG · Leeds United	2,030	2,033	2026-09-20
21	POR · SL Benfica	2,026	2,071	2026-09-20
22	ITA · AS Roma	2,024	2,070	2026-09-19
23	ENG · Chelsea	2,022	2,185	2026-09-18
24	GER · VfB Stuttgart	2,018	2,050	2026-10-01
25	BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2,018	2,037	2026-09-20
26	POR · Porto	2,014	2,086	2026-10-02
27	ENG · Newcastle United	2,014	2,141	2026-09-19
28	RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg	2,010	2,011	2026-10-04
29	ENG · Everton	2,007	2,009	2026-09-19
30	ITA · Juventus	1,996	2,200	2026-10-02

Top national teams by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	ESP · Spain	2,306	2,306	2026-10-03
2	ENG · England	2,191	2,191	2026-10-03
3	ARG · Argentina	2,181	2,198	2026-07-19
4	FRA · France	2,136	2,209	2026-10-02
5	POR · Portugal	2,087	2,088	2026-10-04
6	MAR · Morocco	2,083	2,106	2026-07-09
7	COL · Colombia	2,046	2,115	2026-07-07
8	BEL · Belgium	2,038	2,175	2026-10-02
9	SUI · Switzerland	2,029	2,032	2026-10-03
10	NED · Netherlands	2,023	2,177	2026-10-04
11	JPN · Japan	2,022	2,063	2026-06-29
12	BRA · Brazil	2,021	2,212	2026-07-05
13	MEX · Mexico	2,015	2,054	2026-07-05
14	NOR · Norway	1,972	2,053	2026-10-04
15	GER · Germany	1,964	2,254	2026-10-04
16	NGA · Nigeria	1,950	1,961	2026-06-10
17	AUS · Australia	1,949	2,002	2026-07-03
18	ITA · Italy	1,937	2,095	2026-10-02
19	IRN · Iran	1,934	2,017	2026-06-26
20	ECU · Ecuador	1,932	1,977	2026-06-30
21	CRO · Croatia	1,928	2,036	2026-10-03
22	SEN · Senegal	1,922	1,990	2026-07-01
23	AUT · Austria	1,916	1,956	2026-10-04
24	DEN · Denmark	1,908	2,018	2026-10-04
25	ALG · Algeria	1,908	1,961	2026-07-02
26	KOR · South Korea	1,900	1,985	2026-06-24
27	EGY · Egypt	1,888	1,962	2026-07-07
28	CIV · Ivory Coast	1,887	2,007	2026-06-30
29	URU · Uruguay	1,881	2,053	2026-06-26
30	USA · United States	1,880	2,011	2026-07-06

All rated teams 14,598 teams

Type Country

Team

▸ Reset

#	Team	Country	Rating	Peak	Matches	Last match
4001	FC Xhoffraix	BEL	1,499	1,528	8	2013-08-04
4002	Helsted Fremad IF	DEN	1,499	1,508	3	2021-09-08
4003	VV SteDoCo	NED	1,499	1,518	3	2021-10-26
4004	Zestafoni	GEO	1,499	1,558	16	2014-08-19
4005	ESV Austria Graz	AUT	1,499	1,521	6	1961-12-08
4006	Benevento Calcio	ITA	1,499	1,749	416	2026-10-02
4007	Metalist Kharkiv	UKR	1,499	1,862	207	2026-09-09
4008	Mureşul Luduş	ROU	1,499	1,500	1	1983-12-07
4009	Zweigen Kanazawa	JPN	1,499	1,535	36	2025-06-18
4010	Asheville City SC	USA	1,499	1,500	4	2026-03-31
4011	Signal FC Bernex-Confignon (2I)	SUI	1,499	1,500	1	2025-08-16
4012	Cayon	ESP	1,499	1,503	3	2023-12-07
4013	Wkra Żuromin	POL	1,499	1,512	2	1997-07-30
4014	SK Wenduine	BEL	1,499	1,518	2	1978-08-06
4015	Nora-Pershyttan	SWE	1,499	1,523	4	2014-07-30
4016	Rimini	ITA	1,499	1,644	344	2025-08-10
4017	AC Tervant	BEL	1,499	1,517	2	2017-08-06
4018	Nona FC	USA	1,499	1,512	2	2023-04-04
4019	HIK	DEN	1,499	1,559	30	2025-09-16
4020	VK Tielrode	BEL	1,499	1,511	2	2007-08-05
4021	Vovchansk	UKR	1,499	1,513	4	2021-09-01
4022	Horizonte Futebol Clube	BRA	1,499	1,514	2	2014-04-10
4023	SK Treibach/Althofen	AUT	1,499	1,500	1	2003-08-26
4024	Excelsior SC de Bruxelles	BEL	1,499	1,522	7	1926-10-03
4025	Taizhou Aizhilü	CHN	1,499	1,514	2	2019-03-31
4026	Sunderland Albion	ENG	1,499	1,510	7	1892-01-30
4027	Śniardwy Orzysz	POL	1,499	1,512	2	1986-08-03
4028	FC.Nieuwkerken	BEL	1,499	1,518	4	2002-08-04
4029	Guangzhou Baiyunshan	CHN	1,499	1,514	2	1999-05-16
4030	Shanghai Jiading Boo King	CHN	1,499	1,576	32	2026-06-20
4031	Atert Bissen	LUX	1,499	1,500	1	2026-10-01
4032	Sangiuliano City	ITA	1,499	1,501	38	2023-04-22
4033	SK Rapid Wien Amateure	AUT	1,499	1,510	3	2001-09-18
4034	R. Crossing Cl. Schaerbeek	BEL	1,499	1,532	30	2023-09-10
4035	Covadonga	ESP	1,499	1,500	1	2023-11-01
4036	Agios Dimitrios	GRE	1,499	1,534	27	2008-08-31
4037	B73 Slagelse	DEN	1,499	1,512	2	2014-09-23
4038	Eendracht Elene-Grotenberge	BEL	1,499	1,514	6	2023-11-01
4039	Lansing Ignite FC	USA	1,499	1,508	2	2019-05-15
4040	St-Jozef SK Rijkevorsel	BEL	1,499	1,553	16	1980-08-03
4041	Guangxi Bushan	CHN	1,499	1,512	2	2024-04-20
4042	Arameisk-Syrianska IF	SWE	1,499	1,516	20	2025-05-14
4043	Anzhi Makhachkala	RUS	1,499	1,789	211	2019-05-26
4044	Amasyaspor	TUR	1,499	1,501	6	2001-11-07
4045	Boyne Rovers	IRL	1,499	1,512	3	1990-03-11
4046	Stade Marocain	MAR	1,499	1,500	1	2026-09-06
4047	Sambir	UKR	1,499	1,500	1	1995-08-01
4048	Nysa Kłodzko	POL	1,499	1,502	2	1998-07-28
4049	ROC Rochois	BEL	1,499	1,542	17	2018-07-29
4050	Pidshypnyk Lutsk	UKR	1,499	1,516	4	1994-09-05

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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	Margin removed
Home win	2.00	50.0%	48.3%
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.6%
Away win	4.00	25.0%	24.1%
Total	—	103.6%	100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.