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// Elo ratings 545,494 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,494
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,907 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,897 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,096 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,849 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,177 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,421 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,587 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.00% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,106 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,288 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,431 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,405 20.00% 0 — — —
300+ 6,494 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
11 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
12 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,598 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
3951 Gloria Gaz Metan Cornești ROU 1,500 1,512 2 2017-08-22
3952 Esporte Clube Avenida BRA 1,500 1,508 2 2019-02-20
3953 Croix de Savoie FRA 1,500 1,500 3 2009-01-03
3954 Strug Tyczyn POL 1,500 1,500 1 2003-07-29
3955 Slavija Sarajevo BIH 1,500 1,534 4 2009-09-09
3956 FC Illiria Payerne SUI 1,500 1,518 2 2016-09-18
3957 Yvetot FRA 1,500 1,512 2 2015-12-06
3958 Lechia/Olimpia Gdańsk POL 1,500 1,500 1 1996-09-28
3959 Prosna Kalisz POL 1,499 1,512 2 1991-07-28
3960 IFK Berga SWE 1,499 1,514 9 2025-05-27
3961 Gansu Longxing CHN 1,499 1,508 2 2002-05-02
3962 Dukla Banská Bystrica SVK 1,499 1,530 14 2010-08-19
3963 Berço POR 1,499 1,500 1 2021-10-16
3964 HooGee/2 FIN 1,499 1,500 1 2016-02-10
3965 Dalian Ruiheng CHN 1,499 1,517 6 2018-01-07
3966 Vetlanda FF SWE 1,499 1,518 2 2009-04-02
3967 Al Washm KSA 1,499 1,508 3 2019-11-07
3968 ATUS Fliesen Koller Velden AUT 1,499 1,500 1 2024-07-26
3969 K.VV.Belg.-Edegem Sp BEL 1,499 1,512 2 2002-08-11
3970 Proodeftiki Patras GRE 1,499 1,515 7 1949-11-13
3971 R. Entente Blegnytoise BEL 1,499 1,524 8 2012-07-29
3972 Muscelul Câmpulung Elite ROU 1,499 1,521 2 2023-08-16
3973 Dongguan Dongcheng CHN 1,499 1,500 1 2004-04-11
3974 Ahron UKR 1,499 1,502 2 2026-08-12
3975 LPS HD Clinceni ROU 1,499 1,511 4 2025-08-13
3976 R. Jeunesse Arlonaise BEL 1,499 1,554 55 2009-07-25
3977 Cacereno ESP 1,499 1,526 13 2025-10-28
3978 White Star Malou Woluwé BEL 1,499 1,514 2 1983-08-06
3979 Prato ITA 1,499 1,501 40 2018-05-05
3980 Bahçeli Gençlik TUR 1,499 1,526 12 1965-10-26
3981 Union St.Florian AUT 1,499 1,515 2 2011-09-20
3982 FC Superga SUI 1,499 1,515 3 1990-08-11
3983 Horendonk FC BEL 1,499 1,508 2 2014-08-02
3984 Avaí BRA 1,499 1,585 191 2026-03-10
3985 Club Atlético Gimnasia y Esgrima (Jujuy) ARG 1,499 1,500 12 2026-05-30
3986 Phoenix Rising FC USA 1,499 1,510 24 2026-04-15
3987 Dinamo Slatina ROU 1,499 1,508 2 1979-05-16
3988 R. US Lessinoise BEL 1,499 1,577 23 1977-08-07
3989 KSV Roeselare BEL 1,499 1,597 294 2018-08-26
3990 Włókniarz Pabianice POL 1,499 1,522 21 1999-08-11
3991 Entente Sportive de Bois de Villers BEL 1,499 1,508 2 1975-08-10
3992 TsSKA Kyiv UKR 1,499 1,545 32 2009-08-15
3993 Aris Skala GRE 1,499 1,508 2 2021-09-12
3994 Minerul Aninoasa ROU 1,499 1,508 2 1959-04-01
3995 FC Kerzers SUI 1,499 1,516 2 1998-08-22
3996 Metalist Irshava UKR 1,499 1,514 2 1992-08-07
3997 SUMU FIN 1,499 1,520 11 2026-02-15
3998 Keminmaan Pallo FIN 1,499 1,522 2 2023-04-10
3999 Sancaktepe TUR 1,499 1,528 22 2021-09-29
4000 Utilajul Făgăraş ROU 1,499 1,500 1 1979-12-09
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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