How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,489

Teams rated14,934

Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25

Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,903 matches

drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	With odds	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	67,226	27.39%	22,161	29.39%	28.79%	-1.08%
25–49	72,896	26.31%	21,925	28.62%	28.66%	-3.14%
50–74	79,095	25.02%	20,405	28.41%	28.34%	-2.77%
75–99	64,754	25.22%	18,710	28.04%	27.91%	-2.60%
100–149	86,849	25.25%	29,683	26.91%	26.93%	-3.11%
150–199	53,176	23.72%	20,326	25.50%	25.26%	-2.52%
200–299	49,420	20.56%	19,016	21.77%	22.31%	-5.79%
300+	22,487	13.95%	8,643	14.52%	16.00%	-12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,586 matches

drew How often each rating gap actually drew.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	5,166	27.45%	—	—	—
25–49	5,087	25.56%	—	—	—
50–74	5,106	26.87%	—	—	—
75–99	4,610	25.81%	—	—	—
100–149	8,287	24.59%	—	—	—
150–199	6,431	22.97%	—	—	—
200–299	8,405	20.00%	—	—	—
300+	6,494	12.38%	—	—	—

Top clubs by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	GER · FC Bayern München	2,315	2,328	2026-09-18
2	ENG · Manchester City	2,253	2,331	2026-09-20
3	ENG · Arsenal	2,244	2,293	2026-09-19
4	ESP · Barcelona	2,209	2,243	2026-09-19
5	FRA · Paris Saint-Germain	2,154	2,231	2026-09-20
6	ESP · Real Madrid	2,139	2,237	2026-09-20
7	ITA · Inter Milan	2,127	2,202	2026-10-03
8	NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt	2,122	2,143	2026-10-01
9	ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion	2,103	2,103	2026-09-19
10	ENG · Liverpool	2,098	2,285	2026-09-20
11	GER · Borussia Dortmund	2,091	2,116	2026-09-19
12	ENG · Aston Villa	2,077	2,162	2026-10-02
13	NOR · Viking FK	2,072	2,097	2026-10-01
14	ENG · Brentford	2,068	2,068	2026-09-18
15	ENG · Manchester United	2,065	2,147	2026-09-20
16	ENG · Bournemouth	2,058	2,073	2026-09-20
17	GER · Bayer Leverkusen	2,055	2,190	2026-09-20
18	POR · Sporting CP	2,054	2,145	2026-09-19
19	ESP · Atlético Madrid	2,042	2,134	2026-09-20
20	ENG · Leeds United	2,030	2,033	2026-09-20
21	POR · SL Benfica	2,026	2,071	2026-09-20
22	ITA · AS Roma	2,024	2,070	2026-09-19
23	ENG · Chelsea	2,022	2,185	2026-09-18
24	GER · VfB Stuttgart	2,018	2,050	2026-10-01
25	BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2,018	2,037	2026-09-20
26	POR · Porto	2,014	2,086	2026-10-02
27	ENG · Newcastle United	2,014	2,141	2026-09-19
28	RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg	2,010	2,011	2026-10-04
29	ENG · Everton	2,007	2,009	2026-09-19
30	ITA · Juventus	1,996	2,200	2026-10-02

Top national teams by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	ESP · Spain	2,306	2,306	2026-10-03
2	ENG · England	2,191	2,191	2026-10-03
3	ARG · Argentina	2,181	2,198	2026-07-19
4	FRA · France	2,136	2,209	2026-10-02
5	POR · Portugal	2,087	2,088	2026-10-04
6	MAR · Morocco	2,083	2,106	2026-07-09
7	COL · Colombia	2,046	2,115	2026-07-07
8	BEL · Belgium	2,038	2,175	2026-10-02
9	SUI · Switzerland	2,029	2,032	2026-10-03
10	NED · Netherlands	2,023	2,177	2026-10-04
11	JPN · Japan	2,022	2,063	2026-06-29
12	BRA · Brazil	2,021	2,212	2026-07-05
13	MEX · Mexico	2,015	2,054	2026-07-05
14	NOR · Norway	1,972	2,053	2026-10-04
15	GER · Germany	1,964	2,254	2026-10-04
16	NGA · Nigeria	1,950	1,961	2026-06-10
17	AUS · Australia	1,949	2,002	2026-07-03
18	ITA · Italy	1,937	2,095	2026-10-02
19	IRN · Iran	1,934	2,017	2026-06-26
20	ECU · Ecuador	1,932	1,977	2026-06-30
21	CRO · Croatia	1,928	2,036	2026-10-03
22	SEN · Senegal	1,922	1,990	2026-07-01
23	AUT · Austria	1,916	1,956	2026-10-04
24	DEN · Denmark	1,908	2,018	2026-10-04
25	ALG · Algeria	1,908	1,961	2026-07-02
26	KOR · South Korea	1,900	1,985	2026-06-24
27	EGY · Egypt	1,888	1,962	2026-07-07
28	CIV · Ivory Coast	1,887	2,007	2026-06-30
29	URU · Uruguay	1,881	2,053	2026-06-26
30	USA · United States	1,880	2,011	2026-07-06

All rated teams 14,598 teams

Type Country

Team

▸ Reset

#	Team	Country	Rating	Peak	Matches	Last match
3051	Wierzyca Starogard Gdański	POL	1,506	1,517	4	1994-09-06
3052	O Elvas	POR	1,506	1,524	8	2026-09-19
3053	Glenmore Celtic	IRL	1,506	1,525	3	1987-11-29
3054	Ontinyent CF	ESP	1,506	1,521	3	2018-10-17
3055	Freienbach	SUI	1,506	1,564	31	2019-09-14
3056	FC Mett/Mâche	SUI	1,506	1,527	4	1962-09-29
3057	EBK/Reservi	FIN	1,506	1,532	3	2022-03-27
3058	K. Boom FC	BEL	1,506	1,560	48	1983-08-27
3059	VfR Neumünster	GER	1,506	1,506	1	2013-08-04
3060	Witton	ENG	1,506	1,530	9	1889-02-02
3061	Associação Atlética Portuguesa (Rio de Janeiro)	BRA	1,506	1,523	9	2026-03-11
3062	Ghiroda	ROU	1,506	1,572	19	2026-07-29
3063	PSV Team für Wien	AUT	1,506	1,520	5	2006-10-17
3064	Club Atlético Sarmiento (Resistencia)	ARG	1,506	1,547	13	2023-03-15
3065	Tulcea	ROU	1,506	1,513	3	1974-05-15
3066	Hovslätts IK	SWE	1,506	1,521	2	2012-11-11
3067	Ailly S/S Samara	FRA	1,506	1,518	2	2015-12-06
3068	SK Sankt Andrä	AUT	1,506	1,508	4	2006-11-21
3069	Espérance de Tunis	TUN	1,506	1,508	9	2025-06-24
3070	Entente Régionale FC Manhay	BEL	1,505	1,517	3	1970-08-02
3071	Beyköy Belediyespor	TUR	1,505	1,505	4	2014-09-10
3072	Syunik	ARM	1,505	1,523	9	2026-04-02
3073	Grindsted	DEN	1,505	1,518	2	2020-10-07
3074	All Rikkyo	JPN	1,505	1,549	22	1970-01-01
3075	Unirea Brânceni	ROU	1,505	1,533	10	2016-09-13
3076	Valsta Syrianska IK	SWE	1,505	1,529	18	2014-08-20
3077	Feniks-Illichovets Kalinine	UKR	1,505	1,517	11	2010-10-27
3078	Panarkadikos	GRE	1,505	1,541	40	1990-12-12
3079	K.FC.Verbr.Geel	BEL	1,505	1,520	3	2002-08-25
3080	Monterey Bay	USA	1,505	1,517	8	2025-04-01
3081	Ledøje-Smørum	DEN	1,505	1,527	22	2025-09-02
3082	FK Bor	SRB	1,505	1,505	2	1968-10-02
3083	Handzame	BEL	1,505	1,518	2	1996-08-25
3084	Vilaverdense	POR	1,505	1,522	6	2023-11-25
3085	Panerythraikos	GRE	1,505	1,520	12	1953-11-15
3086	Växjö United FC	SWE	1,505	1,515	2	2018-08-22
3087	Excel Virton	BEL	1,505	1,517	2	2001-08-19
3088	Sotra SK	NOR	1,505	1,531	17	2025-08-13
3089	K. FC Izegem	BEL	1,505	1,555	67	2017-08-06
3090	Gantofta IF	SWE	1,505	1,528	4	2007-04-26
3091	FC Feldkirch	AUT	1,505	1,505	1	2000-08-01
3092	Olimpic Sarajevo	BIH	1,505	1,505	2	2015-07-29
3093	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamț	ROU	1,505	1,547	162	2026-08-05
3094	FC Floria	SUI	1,505	1,522	4	1949-10-30
3095	Viitorul Liteni	ROU	1,505	1,521	5	2019-08-14
3096	Estella Cointrin	SUI	1,505	1,517	2	1944-11-12
3097	Performanța Ighiu	ROU	1,505	1,521	6	2017-10-04
3098	Birmingham Legion FC	USA	1,505	1,536	13	2025-03-19
3099	Regina Genève	SUI	1,505	1,527	3	1944-11-12
3100	SiPS	FIN	1,505	1,563	13	2022-02-27

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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	Margin removed
Home win	2.00	50.0%	48.3%
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.6%
Away win	4.00	25.0%	24.1%
Total	—	103.6%	100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.