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// Elo ratings 545,457 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,457
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,879 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,223 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,892 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,090 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,753 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,847 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,175 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,414 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,485 13.96% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,578 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.85% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.99% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,103 26.85% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,286 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,430 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,403 19.99% 0 — — —
300+ 6,493 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,598 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
1651 Wisła Tczew POL 1,523 1,535 6 1989-08-16
1652 FC United Richelle BEL 1,523 1,548 14 2018-07-28
1653 AE Pangrati GRE 1,523 1,532 10 1949-11-27
1654 K. Sassport Boezinge BEL 1,523 1,544 25 2018-07-28
1655 Crossfire Redmond USA 1,523 1,523 2 2023-04-05
1656 Red Bull Salzburg Reserves AUT 1,523 1,525 2 2009-09-18
1657 Belgica FC Edegem BEL 1,523 1,523 7 2001-08-19
1658 KSK Heist BEL 1,523 1,558 98 2026-08-01
1659 Le Poire SV FRA 1,523 1,534 10 2017-01-31
1660 Kryształ Stronie Śląskie POL 1,523 1,550 11 1997-08-02
1661 Harborough Town ENG 1,523 1,523 2 2024-12-01
1662 SJK-j FIN 1,523 1,537 8 2025-03-29
1663 Tampereen Ilves/2 FIN 1,523 1,523 1 2022-04-14
1664 Tavriia Simferopol UKR 1,523 1,640 100 2021-09-22
1665 Górnik Złotoryja POL 1,523 1,535 7 1992-08-12
1666 Rende ITA 1,523 1,587 99 2020-03-08
1667 RAEC Mons BEL 1,523 1,640 378 2024-09-07
1668 Stade Lavallois FRA 1,523 1,618 869 2026-10-02
1669 Pivdenstal Yenakiieve UKR 1,523 1,523 4 1997-07-26
1670 Brito POR 1,523 1,523 3 2026-09-20
1671 Union Raiffeisen Gurten AUT 1,523 1,523 6 2023-09-28
1672 Polonia Bydgoszcz POL 1,523 1,535 10 1988-08-03
1673 AFC Wimbledon ENG 1,523 1,616 853 2026-09-26
1674 SC Genemuiden NED 1,523 1,532 18 2026-09-22
1675 CSM Târgu Jiu ROU 1,523 1,526 3 2026-08-12
1676 KVC Wingene BEL 1,523 1,536 17 2018-08-12
1677 Voința Biled ROU 1,523 1,534 4 2017-10-04
1678 Fribourg SUI 1,523 1,628 222 2006-08-26
1679 Chemlon Humenné SVK 1,523 1,530 4 1996-09-26
1680 Fano Calcio ITA 1,523 1,534 128 2021-05-02
1681 Niğde Belediyesi Spor TUR 1,523 1,529 6 2025-10-28
1682 SV Wevelgem City BEL 1,523 1,549 27 2018-08-11
1683 Lausanne-Sport U-21 SUI 1,523 1,543 6 2002-09-07
1684 FC Gomel BLR 1,523 1,549 19 2026-10-02
1685 Miami FC USA 1,523 1,541 20 2025-04-16
1686 Voetbal Onstpanning Volharden Aalst BEL 1,523 1,536 4 1965-08-22
1687 Mikrasiatiki GRE 1,523 1,534 6 1947-12-07
1688 Asteras Kaisarianis GRE 1,523 1,540 4 2023-10-07
1689 Achilleus Corinth GRE 1,523 1,533 7 1949-12-25
1690 K.Sint-Eloois-Winkel Sp BEL 1,523 1,535 8 2002-08-25
1691 Kastamonuspor TUR 1,523 1,532 12 2012-10-02
1692 Tianjin Tianhai CHN 1,523 1,646 113 2019-12-01
1693 Eskavee Zwevezele BEL 1,523 1,531 3 2017-08-13
1694 Villanovense ESP 1,523 1,539 14 2023-12-06
1695 R. Excelsior Mouscron BEL 1,523 1,591 82 2009-10-27
1696 R. JS Bas-Oha BEL 1,523 1,551 50 2013-07-27
1697 Turris-Oltul Turnu Măgurele ROU 1,523 1,544 10 2021-02-09
1698 Unirea Mircești ROU 1,522 1,529 6 2019-08-27
1699 FC Lahti/69 FIN 1,522 1,546 3 2025-04-16
1700 Raufoss IL NOR 1,522 1,724 841 2026-09-20
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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