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// Elo ratings 545,457 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,457
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,879 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,223 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,892 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,090 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,753 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,847 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,175 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,414 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,485 13.96% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,578 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.85% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.97% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.99% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.38% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,087 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,103 26.85% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,286 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,430 22.97% 0 — — —
200–299 8,403 19.99% 0 — — —
300+ 6,493 12.38% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,306 2,306 2026-10-03
2 ENG · England 2,191 2,191 2026-10-03
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,136 2,209 2026-10-02
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 BEL · Belgium 2,038 2,175 2026-10-02
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,029 2,032 2026-10-03
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
17 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
18 ITA · Italy 1,937 2,095 2026-10-02
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,928 2,036 2026-10-03
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,598 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
1551 Radnički Niš SRB 1,526 1,598 28 2019-08-19
1552 FBK Kaunas LTU 1,526 1,586 34 2009-08-19
1553 Empoli ITA 1,526 1,804 1,177 2026-09-20
1554 Voltigeurs FRA 1,526 1,530 3 2021-04-07
1555 Toin University of Yokohama JPN 1,526 1,527 9 2022-06-08
1556 Saprissa CRC 1,526 1,526 3 2005-12-18
1557 Chojniczanka Chojnice POL 1,526 1,557 41 2026-08-05
1558 Charleston Battery USA 1,526 1,526 27 2026-03-31
1559 KFC Sparta Petegem BEL 1,526 1,551 46 2026-08-02
1560 Viitorul Darabani ROU 1,525 1,525 2 2022-08-17
1561 Sportunion Mauer AUT 1,525 1,536 2 2024-09-24
1562 ASM Belfort FRA 1,525 1,526 7 2023-01-22
1563 Yokohama Flügels JPN 1,525 1,525 8 1999-01-01
1564 CD Alcoyano ESP 1,525 1,533 68 2026-08-19
1565 Sprimont Comblain Sport BEL 1,525 1,575 33 2017-08-13
1566 Panamvrakikos GRE 1,525 1,540 4 1953-11-08
1567 KVV Vosselaar BEL 1,525 1,537 23 2018-08-12
1568 Lokomotyv Rivne UKR 1,525 1,525 4 1992-11-11
1569 Yomraspor TUR 1,525 1,534 17 2022-09-28
1570 Zulimanit FIN 1,525 1,539 13 2025-03-30
1571 Angers Intrepide FRA 1,525 1,525 1 2007-12-16
1572 Deutschkreutz AUT 1,525 1,525 1 2000-08-04
1573 Ponnistus/2 FIN 1,525 1,525 1 2026-02-22
1574 Yeşilova TUR 1,525 1,544 13 1993-12-22
1575 HyPS FIN 1,525 1,550 23 2025-03-29
1576 Hønefoss BK NOR 1,525 1,841 615 2026-09-30
1577 Nyva Myronivka UKR 1,525 1,540 5 1996-03-03
1578 Olimpia Grudziądz POL 1,525 1,544 38 2026-08-05
1579 Sichuan Minzu CHN 1,525 1,535 3 2021-10-14
1580 Brabrand IF DEN 1,525 1,563 34 2025-08-05
1581 Astana KAZ 1,525 1,653 69 2026-02-10
1582 Cork Hibernians IRL 1,525 1,587 70 1976-03-01
1583 FCM Brussels S BEL 1,525 1,527 4 2012-09-26
1584 Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza POL 1,525 1,559 204 2026-10-03
1585 Lierse SK BEL 1,525 1,725 751 2026-08-02
1586 Caransebeș ROU 1,525 1,551 9 2026-08-05
1587 BSC Young Boys Bern SUI 1,525 1,525 1 2008-09-21
1588 KGR Katelijne BEL 1,525 1,538 6 2015-08-09
1589 PIF FIN 1,525 1,528 12 2026-02-22
1590 R. SC Boussu-Bois BEL 1,525 1,564 32 1980-08-03
1591 Harai Zhovkva UKR 1,525 1,533 9 1997-07-26
1592 Lunds BK SWE 1,525 1,536 26 2025-08-20
1593 Polonia Przemyśl POL 1,525 1,537 10 1999-09-15
1594 İstanbulspor TUR 1,525 1,666 517 2026-07-24
1595 KFC Sporting Sint-Gillis-Waas BEL 1,525 1,551 52 2017-08-06
1596 FC Zug SUI 1,525 1,539 43 1993-09-04
1597 EuPa 2 FIN 1,525 1,525 2 2026-03-01
1598 FC PoPa FIN 1,525 1,532 3 2009-08-30
1599 ÅCF FIN 1,524 1,556 8 2025-03-26
1600 Turnhoutsche SK Hand-In-Hand BEL 1,524 1,524 2 1926-08-29
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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