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// Elo ratings 545,248 matches rated · 14,931 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,248
Teams rated14,931
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,687 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 13.9% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,063 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,728 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,815 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,386 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,460 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,561 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.61% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.98% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,282 24.61% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,400 19.98% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
9 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
10 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
11 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,595 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
1251 SC Toekomst Menen BEL 1,534 1,549 20 2018-08-26
1252 Warta Poznań POL 1,534 1,675 191 2026-08-05
1253 Deportivo Riestra ARG 1,534 1,617 122 2026-09-19
1254 Esse IK FIN 1,534 1,551 3 2025-03-29
1255 IL Bjarg NOR 1,534 1,547 32 2026-09-16
1256 R. Léopold CB BEL 1,534 1,534 3 1926-10-03
1257 FK Rad SRB 1,534 1,538 6 2011-08-19
1258 KaaPo FIN 1,534 1,588 21 2025-02-27
1259 Rapid Spouwen BEL 1,534 1,543 30 1983-08-21
1260 K. SK Halle BEL 1,534 1,562 36 2016-08-21
1261 Peterborough United ENG 1,534 1,734 1,955 2026-09-26
1262 Lisne UKR 1,534 1,534 3 2025-10-28
1263 Shaanxi Union CHN 1,534 1,547 9 2026-07-22
1264 Excelsior Veldwezelt BEL 1,534 1,570 30 2012-08-11
1265 Gmestarit FIN 1,534 1,534 4 2026-02-20
1266 FC Viktoria Bern SUI 1,534 1,546 90 1986-09-06
1267 VJS/2 FIN 1,534 1,581 13 2025-04-16
1268 Bragança POR 1,534 1,534 4 2026-09-20
1269 SK Lebbeke BEL 1,534 1,545 60 2016-08-21
1270 MiKi FIN 1,534 1,534 4 2011-01-31
1271 RFC Tilleur Saint-Gilles BEL 1,533 1,543 16 2013-08-11
1272 Levski Sofia BUL 1,533 1,698 215 2026-09-17
1273 Verviétois BEL 1,533 1,533 2 2003-08-23
1274 Nacional URU 1,533 1,536 4 1988-12-11
1275 IK Oddevold SWE 1,533 1,539 21 2026-03-09
1276 FC Assent BEL 1,533 1,556 15 1983-08-21
1277 Spakenburg NED 1,533 1,571 31 2026-09-22
1278 EPS FIN 1,533 1,558 15 2025-04-15
1279 Lierse Kempenzonen BEL 1,533 1,541 13 2025-10-28
1280 AIA DEN 1,533 1,542 3 1963-11-24
1281 First Vienna AUT 1,533 1,693 197 2026-07-25
1282 FC Honka/3 FIN 1,533 1,575 7 2026-02-15
1283 Søllerød-Vedbæk DEN 1,533 1,546 8 2015-09-01
1284 Orhangazi Belediyespor TUR 1,533 1,533 16 2017-12-12
1285 ToBK FIN 1,533 1,551 10 2026-02-21
1286 StaPa De Royale FIN 1,533 1,533 6 2026-02-27
1287 SC Wiener Neustadt AUT 1,533 1,582 137 2020-10-17
1288 Tikka FIN 1,533 1,541 7 2025-03-29
1289 Atlético Baleares ESP 1,533 1,548 13 2026-08-14
1290 Jilin Baijia CHN 1,533 1,540 10 2019-05-29
1291 NAC Breda NED 1,533 1,751 920 2026-08-01
1292 SP Kyoto FC JPN 1,533 1,551 14 2011-10-10
1293 Härmä FIN 1,533 1,570 19 2026-02-20
1294 Spartak Subotica SRB 1,533 1,552 10 2018-10-04
1295 Arda Kardzhali BUL 1,533 1,544 6 2025-10-04
1296 Avers Bakhmach UKR 1,533 1,533 3 1997-07-26
1297 Burdur MAKÜ TUR 1,533 1,533 5 2023-10-31
1298 El Paso Locomotive FC USA 1,533 1,550 11 2026-04-15
1299 Carlisle United ENG 1,532 1,643 1,862 2026-09-29
1300 Etelä-Espoon Pallo/Renat FIN 1,532 1,555 6 2025-04-09
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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