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// Elo ratings 545,244 matches rated · 14,931 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,244
Teams rated14,931
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,683 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 13.9% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,062 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,727 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,814 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,385 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,460 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,561 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.61% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.98% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,282 24.61% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,400 19.98% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
9 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
10 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
11 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,595 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
1101 Dnepr Mogilev BLR 1,540 1,552 10 2010-10-04
1102 ASV Hertha Wien AUT 1,540 1,553 6 1929-03-24
1103 SD Huesca ESP 1,540 1,723 698 2026-08-13
1104 Cowlairs ENG 1,540 1,549 3 1886-12-04
1105 Clydebank SCO 1,540 1,543 306 2025-11-29
1106 FK Riteriai LTU 1,540 1,567 20 2019-08-19
1107 Leixões SC POR 1,540 1,636 116 2026-09-20
1108 Budapest Honvéd HUN 1,540 1,601 112 2019-09-09
1109 FK Jerv NOR 1,540 1,716 392 2026-09-16
1110 KSK Hasselt BEL 1,540 1,560 28 2014-08-24
1111 Stal Mielec POL 1,540 1,630 239 2025-09-23
1112 AO Ypato GRE 1,540 1,545 9 2023-09-03
1113 RUS Genly-Quévy 89 BEL 1,540 1,556 18 2015-08-09
1114 Vitória de Setúbal POR 1,540 1,662 821 2026-09-20
1115 SK Lochristi BEL 1,540 1,549 10 2018-08-11
1116 Lokomotíva Košice SVK 1,540 1,560 10 1979-09-09
1117 FC POHU/CJ United FIN 1,539 1,539 4 2026-03-07
1118 HooGee/23 FIN 1,539 1,539 4 2026-02-08
1119 KSK Ronse BEL 1,539 1,593 78 2019-09-24
1120 Robur Siena ITA 1,539 1,765 727 2026-08-22
1121 Aluminium Konin POL 1,539 1,605 40 2004-08-03
1122 KFC Vigor Wuitens Hamme BEL 1,539 1,570 62 2024-09-08
1123 Grêmio Novorizontino BRA 1,539 1,539 9 2026-03-18
1124 Çorum TUR 1,539 1,554 29 2026-09-19
1125 Yerevan United ARM 1,539 1,539 4 2005-03-19
1126 FK Borac Banja Luka BIH 1,539 1,557 25 2026-09-27
1127 Qingdao Huanghai Zhiyao CHN 1,539 1,552 4 2014-03-30
1128 SexyPöxyt FIN 1,539 1,559 29 2025-04-27
1129 Hvidovre IF DEN 1,539 1,622 95 2025-09-16
1130 NouLa FIN 1,539 1,557 6 2022-05-15
1131 FCO Beerschot Wilrijk BEL 1,539 1,554 14 2018-12-04
1132 Concordia Chiajna ROU 1,539 1,544 295 2026-08-12
1133 Köniz SUI 1,539 1,587 78 2022-09-17
1134 FC POHU/United FIN 1,539 1,539 4 2026-03-08
1135 Krystal Chortkiv UKR 1,539 1,539 17 1998-08-29
1136 Torpedo-BelAZ Zhodino BLR 1,539 1,555 14 2025-08-19
1137 KVV Coxyde BEL 1,539 1,593 33 2016-08-14
1138 Puszcza Niepołomice POL 1,539 1,604 111 2025-10-29
1139 Nurmijärven Jalkapalloseura/3 FIN 1,539 1,539 3 2024-05-12
1140 Waasland-Beveren BEL 1,539 1,637 279 2026-09-20
1141 AFC NED 1,538 1,538 24 2026-09-22
1142 CSM Pașcani ROU 1,538 1,551 28 2025-08-13
1143 Shkëndija Tetovo MKD 1,538 1,614 36 2025-12-09
1144 Delémont SUI 1,538 1,673 174 2024-08-17
1145 New England Revolution USA 1,538 1,687 548 2026-09-27
1146 Zibo Cuju CHN 1,538 1,545 16 2022-11-17
1147 Beroe Stara Zagora BUL 1,538 1,589 34 2016-08-19
1148 KFC Duffel BEL 1,538 1,569 90 2019-09-25
1149 Berchem Sport BEL 1,538 1,604 97 2018-08-12
1150 FC VSS Košice SVK 1,538 1,585 40 2014-08-19
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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