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// Elo ratings 545,224 matches rated · 14,930 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,224
Teams rated14,930
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,671 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,058 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,726 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,813 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,383 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,456 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
25 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,016 2,050 2026-09-25
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,594 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
901 Gnistan/M35 FIN 1,552 1,576 14 2026-03-05
902 SV Gerasdorf AUT 1,552 1,583 13 1997-08-15
903 Polonia Bytom POL 1,552 1,566 68 2025-12-03
904 Universitatea II Craiova ROU 1,552 1,552 5 2015-09-09
905 Malmin Ponnistajat FIN 1,552 1,575 13 2025-04-16
906 Trelissac FC FRA 1,552 1,558 9 2024-01-20
907 CS Tunari ROU 1,551 1,551 23 2026-08-12
908 Sporting Fingal IRL 1,551 1,576 15 2010-08-30
909 Niemisen Urheilijat FIN 1,551 1,551 10 2025-04-12
910 Southend United ENG 1,551 1,654 1,897 2026-09-30
911 UR La Louvière Centre BEL 1,551 1,572 20 2018-08-18
912 FC Kontu FIN 1,551 1,569 24 2026-02-18
913 Valtti FIN 1,551 1,551 9 2025-04-20
914 Atlantis FC/PM FIN 1,551 1,560 6 2025-04-12
915 Servette U-21 SUI 1,551 1,563 8 2002-09-07
916 Shakhtar-2 Donetsk UKR 1,551 1,587 15 1997-07-18
917 Naftokhimik Kremenchuk UKR 1,551 1,564 11 1996-03-03
918 CD Mirandés ESP 1,551 1,688 546 2026-08-15
919 Atlético Goianiense BRA 1,551 1,669 286 2026-05-14
920 Kokushikan University JPN 1,551 1,551 6 2017-06-21
921 FK Teplice CZE 1,551 1,582 20 2009-10-04
922 K. St-Niklaasse SK BEL 1,550 1,574 75 2018-08-25
923 Winterthur SUI 1,550 1,759 439 2026-07-17
924 FK Sarajevo BIH 1,550 1,600 72 2025-08-19
925 Sichuan Quanxing CHN 1,550 1,574 38 2005-06-26
926 K. Hoger-Op Merchtem BEL 1,550 1,565 53 2018-08-12
927 ReinMeer Aomori JPN 1,549 1,563 10 2025-07-16
928 Toukolan Teräs FIN 1,549 1,553 18 2025-04-09
929 Swifts ENG 1,549 1,609 52 1890-01-18
930 Merksem-Antwerpen Noord SC BEL 1,549 1,558 10 2014-08-17
931 Hillerød Fodbold DEN 1,549 1,561 20 2025-09-24
932 Racing White Daring Molenbeek BEL 1,549 1,650 220 2022-09-24
933 Vendsyssel FF DEN 1,549 1,605 73 2026-07-18
934 BK Frem DEN 1,549 1,576 50 2025-08-06
935 FC Ingolstadt 04 GER 1,549 1,769 639 2026-09-19
936 PK-37 FIN 1,549 1,559 20 2025-03-30
937 Chuo University JPN 1,549 1,611 31 1993-12-11
938 Ionikos Asteras Thiva GRE 1,549 1,549 1 1948-10-23
939 Stockholm Internazionale SWE 1,549 1,561 16 2025-08-21
940 Auchinleck Talbot SCO 1,549 1,583 41 2026-01-18
941 Hurlford United SCO 1,549 1,560 6 2014-11-08
942 Queen's Park SCO 1,549 1,670 1,173 2026-09-25
943 Luzern U-21 SUI 1,548 1,556 10 2002-10-09
944 Léopold FC BEL 1,548 1,564 18 2018-08-12
945 Unirea Urziceni ROU 1,548 1,613 31 2010-10-27
946 Grenoble Foot 38 FRA 1,548 1,684 698 2026-09-18
947 PK Keski-Uusimaa FIN 1,548 1,571 20 2025-04-15
948 IFK Mariehamn FIN 1,548 1,731 512 2026-09-18
949 Keçiörengücü TUR 1,548 1,556 60 2025-12-02
950 Östersunds FK SWE 1,548 1,856 266 2026-03-15
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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