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// Elo ratings 545,221 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,221
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,668 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,870 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,057 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,726 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,813 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,160 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,383 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,456 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
25 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,016 2,050 2026-09-25
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
801 Serrières SUI 1,560 1,606 34 2002-09-07
802 Iraklis Thessaloniki GRE 1,560 1,745 903 2026-09-19
803 Kouvolan Jalkapallo FIN 1,559 1,575 11 2025-03-30
804 KSC Lokeren Oost-Vlaanderen BEL 1,559 1,591 43 2019-09-26
805 FC Kiisto FIN 1,559 1,579 18 2025-04-15
806 FC KooTeePee FIN 1,559 1,586 28 2013-04-25
807 K. Sparta FC Zwijndrecht BEL 1,559 1,595 17 1974-08-04
808 LPS FIN 1,559 1,580 31 2026-02-15
809 Atlético Tucumán ARG 1,559 1,658 386 2026-09-21
810 FC Amsterdam NED 1,559 1,589 8 1974-10-04
811 Varbergs BoIS SWE 1,559 1,706 172 2026-03-08
812 Giresunspor TUR 1,559 1,609 146 2025-09-18
813 PoPo FIN 1,558 1,564 14 2026-02-22
814 KVK Ieper BEL 1,558 1,584 37 2012-08-19
815 Brattvåg IL NOR 1,558 1,564 39 2026-09-16
816 Sporting Liești ROU 1,558 1,558 24 2026-08-12
817 MuSa FIN 1,558 1,610 30 2025-04-16
818 AVS Futebol SAD POR 1,558 1,558 76 2026-09-20
819 KFC Oosterzonen Oosterwijk BEL 1,558 1,571 23 2017-08-26
820 US Alessandria ITA 1,557 1,571 267 2024-04-28
821 Pakkalan Palloseura/Old Stars FIN 1,557 1,580 7 2025-03-31
822 Sheffield Wednesday ENG 1,557 1,813 2,123 2026-09-19
823 Old Carthusians ENG 1,557 1,637 40 1890-01-18
824 K. Helzold FC BEL 1,557 1,567 22 1970-11-11
825 Zawisza Bydgoszcz POL 1,557 1,647 151 2026-04-08
826 Örgryte IS SWE 1,557 1,616 136 2026-09-19
827 FC Kuusysi FIN 1,556 1,579 50 2024-06-16
828 CF Monterrey MEX 1,556 1,734 574 2026-09-26
829 KMSK Deinze BEL 1,556 1,602 91 2024-10-31
830 Fremad Amager DEN 1,556 1,599 35 2025-08-05
831 Budowlani Chorzów POL 1,556 1,556 5 1951-09-08
832 PEPO FIN 1,556 1,600 23 2025-04-12
833 Middelfart G&BK DEN 1,556 1,583 29 2025-09-03
834 RAAL La Louvière BEL 1,556 1,611 60 2026-09-19
835 R. Wallonia Walhain CG BEL 1,556 1,575 14 2017-08-13
836 Royal Entente Acren Lessines BEL 1,556 1,571 10 2018-08-25
837 Cork City IRL 1,556 1,888 516 2026-07-17
838 BB Erzurumspor TUR 1,556 1,634 149 2026-09-20
839 Spartak Trnava SVK 1,555 1,636 115 2026-07-14
840 Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza ARG 1,555 1,571 40 2026-09-19
841 Viitorul II Constanța ROU 1,555 1,565 6 2015-10-28
842 Royal Léopold Uccle Forestoise BEL 1,555 1,565 6 2005-08-20
843 Gloria Bistrița ROU 1,555 1,585 137 2026-08-12
844 Unirea Ungheni ROU 1,555 1,563 16 2024-12-18
845 CD Tondela POR 1,555 1,589 290 2026-09-19
846 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz AUT 1,555 1,631 116 2026-09-24
847 KSV Temse BEL 1,555 1,557 42 2018-08-26
848 Wolvertem SC BEL 1,555 1,569 27 2016-08-14
849 Ilves/4 FIN 1,555 1,555 9 2026-03-04
850 Ekenäs IF FIN 1,555 1,587 72 2025-06-24
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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