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// Elo ratings 545,215 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,215
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,662 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,870 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,056 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,725 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,812 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,160 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,381 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,455 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
25 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,016 2,050 2026-09-25
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
751 Germinal Beerschot Antwerpen BEL 1,565 1,589 26 2008-04-16
752 Gilla FC FIN 1,565 1,567 6 2025-04-20
753 AD Ceuta ESP 1,565 1,608 64 2026-09-26
754 RiPS FIN 1,565 1,565 20 2025-04-09
755 Querétaro MEX 1,565 1,565 493 2026-09-27
756 Al Ahly EGY 1,565 1,573 30 2025-06-23
757 NoPS FIN 1,565 1,589 19 2025-04-17
758 Real Sociedad B ESP 1,565 1,645 91 2026-09-26
759 Bromley ENG 1,564 1,640 546 2026-09-19
760 Töölön Taisto FIN 1,564 1,586 23 2026-02-21
761 Real Valladolid ESP 1,564 1,799 1,395 2026-09-27
762 Vantaan Jalkapalloseura FIN 1,564 1,583 17 2025-04-15
763 Legirus Inter FIN 1,564 1,588 15 2017-03-04
764 Kırklarelispor TUR 1,564 1,585 42 2025-09-03
765 Falkenbergs FF SWE 1,564 1,585 208 2026-03-08
766 Académico de Viseu POR 1,564 1,564 17 2026-09-20
767 MŠK Žilina SVK 1,563 1,618 68 2025-08-19
768 FC Wil SUI 1,563 1,658 156 2026-07-10
769 K. Esperanza Neerpelt BEL 1,563 1,570 39 2014-08-17
770 FC Epitsentr Dunaivtsi UKR 1,563 1,591 50 2026-09-19
771 Rochdale ENG 1,563 1,674 1,873 2026-09-26
772 FC Cincinnati USA 1,563 1,690 300 2026-09-27
773 Mantova 1911 ITA 1,562 1,633 460 2026-09-20
774 Neftçi Baku AZE 1,562 1,589 51 2022-07-14
775 RE Virton BEL 1,562 1,562 4 2010-10-26
776 Fafe POR 1,562 1,562 9 2026-09-20
777 Borussia Mönchengladbach II GER 1,562 1,614 70 2012-05-19
778 JäPS FIN 1,562 1,562 28 2025-04-15
779 Union Omaha USA 1,562 1,571 18 2026-04-14
780 Sturm 1907 Wien AUT 1,562 1,562 6 1921-02-20
781 Hapoel Petah Tikva ISR 1,562 1,568 10 1997-09-09
782 R. Sporting du Pays de Charleroi BEL 1,561 1,571 20 2016-12-14
783 Sligo Rovers IRL 1,561 1,722 723 2026-09-19
784 Aarau SUI 1,561 1,676 365 2026-09-24
785 Goiás EC BRA 1,561 1,624 325 2026-05-12
786 FC Viktoria 1889 Berlin GER 1,561 1,577 109 2024-08-18
787 NK Veres Rivne UKR 1,561 1,620 239 2026-09-20
788 Unirea Alba Iulia ROU 1,561 1,585 44 2026-08-05
789 Wacker Innsbruck AUT 1,561 1,734 404 2026-07-25
790 Young Boys U-21 SUI 1,561 1,578 5 2002-11-09
791 KPV Kokkola FIN 1,561 1,643 89 2025-06-11
792 MP FIN 1,561 1,593 48 2025-06-11
793 CSM Reșița ROU 1,561 1,581 88 2026-08-12
794 Ventforet Kofu JPN 1,560 1,587 223 2025-07-16
795 Wuhan Three Towns CHN 1,560 1,745 161 2026-09-18
796 Volendam NED 1,560 1,566 385 2026-08-02
797 Moss FK NOR 1,560 1,756 1,290 2026-09-23
798 Kypärämäki Rangers FIN 1,560 1,581 10 2025-04-16
799 MPS/Atletico Malmi FIN 1,560 1,594 14 2025-03-09
800 Imatran Palloseura FIN 1,560 1,582 13 2025-03-30
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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