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// Elo ratings 545,213 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,213
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,660 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,870 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,056 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,725 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,812 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,160 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,378 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,456 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
25 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,016 2,050 2026-09-25
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
701 Fakel Voronezh RUS 1,571 1,715 98 2026-08-02
702 Metalurh Donetsk UKR 1,570 1,673 84 2014-08-23
703 KäPa FIN 1,570 1,573 26 2025-04-15
704 Hazovyk-Khurtovyna Komarno UKR 1,570 1,575 24 1998-10-06
705 Herfølge BK DEN 1,570 1,570 7 2008-09-27
706 Berliner FC Dynamo GER 1,570 1,629 146 2026-09-25
707 Hradec Králové CZE 1,570 1,570 10 1995-11-02
708 Dalian Shide CHN 1,570 1,655 66 2012-07-19
709 Skënderbeu Korçë ALB 1,570 1,587 22 2017-11-04
710 Levanger FK NOR 1,569 1,676 211 2026-09-16
711 Paksi FC HUN 1,569 1,581 12 2025-09-09
712 HB Køge DEN 1,569 1,622 46 2025-07-29
713 SC Untersiebenbrunn AUT 1,569 1,610 32 2004-09-28
714 K. SV Waregem BEL 1,569 1,662 68 1999-12-19
715 CF Estrela da Amadora POR 1,569 1,609 521 2026-09-20
716 Old Etonians ENG 1,569 1,672 58 1887-12-17
717 SV Braunau AUT 1,569 1,588 30 2001-10-16
718 Rot-Weiß Erfurt GER 1,569 1,569 502 2026-09-26
719 Dinamo Tbilisi GEO 1,569 1,664 145 2019-10-04
720 Old Foresters ENG 1,568 1,587 28 1888-01-07
721 FK Jablonec CZE 1,568 1,584 36 2021-12-09
722 FC Admira Wacker Mödling AUT 1,568 1,726 645 2026-07-26
723 Astra Giurgiu ROU 1,568 1,793 421 2022-08-31
724 FC Bleid BEL 1,568 1,577 15 2008-08-16
725 AC Kajaani FIN 1,568 1,568 8 2016-04-21
726 Venus București ROU 1,568 1,646 40 1943-05-11
727 Hakoah Wien AUT 1,568 1,590 7 1920-06-16
728 Aliağa TUR 1,567 1,567 8 2025-12-03
729 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo JPN 1,567 1,670 356 2025-06-18
730 Vojvodina Novi Sad SRB 1,567 1,628 84 2026-09-27
731 FC Kärnten AUT 1,567 1,625 114 2008-08-15
732 Landskrona BoIS SWE 1,567 1,590 99 2026-03-07
733 Zürich U-21 SUI 1,567 1,587 11 2002-11-09
734 Ruch II Chorzów POL 1,567 1,567 10 1993-06-23
735 Royal Mouscron-Péruwelz BEL 1,567 1,613 78 2016-03-13
736 Racing Club Brussel BEL 1,567 1,607 17 1954-04-04
737 Preußen Münster GER 1,567 1,665 507 2026-09-20
738 Shenzhen Xinpengcheng CHN 1,567 1,567 111 2026-09-05
739 Hapoel Tel Aviv ISR 1,566 1,703 106 2014-08-19
740 San Jose Earthquakes USA 1,566 1,624 535 2026-09-27
741 RRC Wetteren-Kwatrecht BEL 1,566 1,568 17 2016-08-21
742 1. FC Saarbrücken GER 1,566 1,655 619 2026-09-19
743 Haka FIN 1,566 1,744 371 2025-10-18
744 Fehérvár FC HUN 1,566 1,597 74 2019-09-09
745 UR Namur BEL 1,566 1,597 84 2018-08-12
746 Dinamo II București ROU 1,566 1,575 11 2016-10-26
747 Operário Ferroviário Esporte Clube BRA 1,566 1,570 22 2026-05-12
748 Slatina ROU 1,566 1,566 17 2026-08-12
749 Progresul București ROU 1,565 1,610 137 2007-09-25
750 Germinal Beerschot Antwerpen BEL 1,565 1,589 26 2008-04-16
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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