How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,526

Teams rated14,934

Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25

Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,923 matches

drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	With odds	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	67,227	27.39%	22,161	29.39%	28.79%	-1.08%
25–49	72,900	26.31%	21,925	28.62%	28.66%	-3.14%
50–74	79,097	25.02%	20,405	28.41%	28.34%	-2.77%
75–99	64,757	25.22%	18,710	28.04%	27.91%	-2.60%
100–149	86,853	25.25%	29,683	26.91%	26.93%	-3.11%
150–199	53,179	23.71%	20,326	25.50%	25.26%	-2.52%
200–299	49,423	20.56%	19,016	21.77%	22.31%	-5.79%
300+	22,487	13.95%	8,643	14.52%	16.00%	-12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,603 matches

drew How often each rating gap actually drew.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	5,168	27.44%	—	—	—
25–49	5,088	25.55%	—	—	—
50–74	5,107	26.87%	—	—	—
75–99	4,611	25.83%	—	—	—
100–149	8,292	24.60%	—	—	—
150–199	6,433	22.96%	—	—	—
200–299	8,407	20.01%	—	—	—
300+	6,497	12.37%	—	—	—

Top clubs by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	GER · FC Bayern München	2,315	2,328	2026-09-18
2	ENG · Manchester City	2,253	2,331	2026-09-20
3	ENG · Arsenal	2,244	2,293	2026-09-19
4	ESP · Barcelona	2,209	2,243	2026-09-19
5	FRA · Paris Saint-Germain	2,154	2,231	2026-09-20
6	ESP · Real Madrid	2,139	2,237	2026-09-20
7	ITA · Inter Milan	2,127	2,202	2026-10-03
8	NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt	2,122	2,143	2026-10-01
9	ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion	2,103	2,103	2026-09-19
10	ENG · Liverpool	2,098	2,285	2026-09-20
11	GER · Borussia Dortmund	2,091	2,116	2026-09-19
12	ENG · Aston Villa	2,077	2,162	2026-10-02
13	NOR · Viking FK	2,072	2,097	2026-10-01
14	ENG · Brentford	2,068	2,068	2026-09-18
15	ENG · Manchester United	2,065	2,147	2026-09-20
16	ENG · Bournemouth	2,058	2,073	2026-09-20
17	GER · Bayer Leverkusen	2,055	2,190	2026-09-20
18	POR · Sporting CP	2,054	2,145	2026-09-19
19	ESP · Atlético Madrid	2,042	2,134	2026-09-20
20	ENG · Leeds United	2,030	2,033	2026-09-20
21	POR · SL Benfica	2,026	2,071	2026-09-20
22	ITA · AS Roma	2,024	2,070	2026-09-19
23	ENG · Chelsea	2,022	2,185	2026-09-18
24	GER · VfB Stuttgart	2,018	2,050	2026-10-01
25	BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2,018	2,037	2026-09-20
26	POR · Porto	2,014	2,086	2026-10-02
27	ENG · Newcastle United	2,014	2,141	2026-09-19
28	RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg	2,010	2,011	2026-10-04
29	ENG · Everton	2,007	2,009	2026-09-19
30	ITA · Juventus	1,996	2,200	2026-10-02

Top national teams by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	ESP · Spain	2,311	2,311	2026-10-06
2	ENG · England	2,195	2,195	2026-10-06
3	ARG · Argentina	2,181	2,198	2026-07-19
4	FRA · France	2,156	2,209	2026-10-05
5	POR · Portugal	2,087	2,088	2026-10-04
6	MAR · Morocco	2,083	2,106	2026-07-09
7	COL · Colombia	2,046	2,115	2026-07-07
8	SUI · Switzerland	2,033	2,033	2026-10-06
9	NED · Netherlands	2,023	2,177	2026-10-04
10	JPN · Japan	2,022	2,063	2026-06-29
11	BRA · Brazil	2,021	2,212	2026-07-05
12	BEL · Belgium	2,018	2,175	2026-10-05
13	MEX · Mexico	2,015	2,054	2026-07-05
14	NOR · Norway	1,972	2,053	2026-10-04
15	GER · Germany	1,964	2,254	2026-10-04
16	ITA · Italy	1,956	2,095	2026-10-05
17	NGA · Nigeria	1,950	1,961	2026-06-10
18	AUS · Australia	1,949	2,002	2026-07-03
19	IRN · Iran	1,934	2,017	2026-06-26
20	ECU · Ecuador	1,932	1,977	2026-06-30
21	CRO · Croatia	1,923	2,036	2026-10-06
22	SEN · Senegal	1,922	1,990	2026-07-01
23	AUT · Austria	1,916	1,956	2026-10-04
24	DEN · Denmark	1,908	2,018	2026-10-04
25	ALG · Algeria	1,908	1,961	2026-07-02
26	KOR · South Korea	1,900	1,985	2026-06-24
27	EGY · Egypt	1,888	1,962	2026-07-07
28	CIV · Ivory Coast	1,887	2,007	2026-06-30
29	URU · Uruguay	1,881	2,053	2026-06-26
30	USA · United States	1,880	2,011	2026-07-06

All rated teams 14,598 teams

Type Country

Team

▸ Reset

#	Team	Country	Rating	Peak	Matches	Last match
7401	FC Wülflingen	SUI	1,487	1,542	24	2002-08-25
7402	FC Kontu/U23	FIN	1,487	1,528	3	2026-02-21
7403	Heinäpään Hanhet -24	FIN	1,487	1,500	2	2025-03-01
7404	Inkopax Wrocław	POL	1,487	1,523	5	2000-08-09
7405	Galway Hibernians	IRL	1,487	1,502	3	2005-06-11
7406	FC Kosova	SUI	1,487	1,520	3	2018-08-18
7407	VfB 03 Hilden	GER	1,487	1,500	1	2024-10-12
7408	Rilindja IL	NOR	1,487	1,500	1	2015-04-22
7409	Austria Wien Amateure	AUT	1,487	1,500	2	1999-09-08
7410	Palliksouriakos	GRE	1,487	1,500	1	2024-09-08
7411	Austria XIII Wien	AUT	1,487	1,500	1	1991-08-14
7412	Arieşul Câmpia Turzii	ROU	1,487	1,500	1	1969-03-05
7413	Laxå IF	SWE	1,487	1,500	2	2000-09-20
7414	Älvsjö AIK	SWE	1,487	1,511	3	2000-09-20
7415	Montlucon	FRA	1,487	1,500	2	2009-01-04
7416	Tokushima University Hippocrates	JPN	1,487	1,500	1	2015-08-30
7417	Farsund IL	NOR	1,487	1,500	1	1977-06-08
7418	Atlas Thymarakia	GRE	1,487	1,512	2	1939-11-19
7419	Guizhou Feiying	CHN	1,487	1,500	1	2026-03-15
7420	Blois Foot 41	FRA	1,487	1,500	2	2025-12-20
7421	Alliance FC Cuesmes	BEL	1,487	1,500	1	2005-07-31
7422	Etoile Espagnole FC	SUI	1,487	1,507	2	1978-08-12
7423	FC Sipo	SUI	1,487	1,500	1	1942-08-30
7424	Jarash	KSA	1,487	1,500	1	1984-03-21
7425	BSV Juniors	AUT	1,487	1,500	1	2003-08-26
7426	Fukui University of Technology	JPN	1,487	1,500	1	2006-09-17
7427	Sainte Genevieve des Bois	FRA	1,487	1,500	3	2018-07-11
7428	FC Brüttisellen	SUI	1,487	1,555	28	2001-08-12
7429	FK Modriča	BIH	1,487	1,526	8	2008-08-06
7430	Puente Genil	ESP	1,487	1,500	1	2025-10-29
7431	De Bataven	NED	1,487	1,500	1	2008-09-24
7432	Austin Aztex	USA	1,487	1,500	1	2015-06-17
7433	Verbroedering Beersel Drogenbos	BEL	1,487	1,500	1	2015-07-26
7434	Ptakhivnyk Velyki Hai	UKR	1,486	1,508	2	1992-08-07
7435	Kapfenberger SV Amateure	AUT	1,486	1,500	1	1986-08-19
7436	Whitehawk	ENG	1,486	1,511	5	2016-11-14
7437	Khimik Vinnytsia	UKR	1,486	1,508	2	1994-09-01
7438	FC Admira Wacker Mödling II	AUT	1,486	1,500	1	2010-07-30
7439	Phönix Mürzzuschlag	AUT	1,486	1,500	1	1983-08-30
7440	FPA SV Fortuna 05	AUT	1,486	1,500	1	2003-08-26
7441	Tycor Athletic	IRL	1,486	1,505	3	1961-03-12
7442	Chornomorets-2 Odesa	UKR	1,486	1,500	5	1994-09-05
7443	Molaikos	GRE	1,486	1,500	1	2022-08-31
7444	PeKa/2	FIN	1,486	1,512	2	2011-02-14
7445	KFC Excelsior Bouwel	BEL	1,486	1,500	1	2018-07-28
7446	Königlicher Honsfelder SV	BEL	1,486	1,500	1	2018-07-29
7447	Torns IF	SWE	1,486	1,524	20	2024-07-02
7448	Mo IL	NOR	1,486	1,613	96	2018-04-18
7449	FC Vrije Mannen Oosterlo	BEL	1,486	1,500	2	1964-08-09
7450	Kyoto University of Education	JPN	1,486	1,500	1	1954-05-22

page 149 / 292 ‹ prev next ›

Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	Margin removed
Home win	2.00	50.0%	48.3%
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.6%
Away win	4.00	25.0%	24.1%
Total	—	103.6%	100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.