▦ FDB4
NOT BET ADVICE UA ONLINE Sign in
// Elo ratings 545,526 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,526
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,923 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.71% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,227 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,900 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,097 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,757 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,853 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,179 23.71% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,423 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,603 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.44% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.55% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.83% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.96% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.01% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,168 27.44% 0 — — —
25–49 5,088 25.55% 0 — — —
50–74 5,107 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,611 25.83% 0 — — —
100–149 8,292 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,433 22.96% 0 — — —
200–299 8,407 20.01% 0 — — —
300+ 6,497 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,311 2,311 2026-10-06
2 ENG · England 2,195 2,195 2026-10-06
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,156 2,209 2026-10-05
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,033 2,033 2026-10-06
9 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,018 2,175 2026-10-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 ITA · Italy 1,956 2,095 2026-10-05
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,923 2,036 2026-10-06
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,598 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
7101 AS Marck FRA 1,488 1,500 3 2015-12-05
7102 Gosselies Sports BEL 1,488 1,501 6 2018-07-28
7103 Sultanbeyli Belediyespor TUR 1,488 1,519 12 2023-09-27
7104 Iberia 1999 GEO 1,488 1,500 2 2025-08-19
7105 Oppdal NOR 1,488 1,500 2 1987-06-24
7106 Club Atlético San Lorenzo de Alem ARG 1,488 1,500 1 2012-10-23
7107 Santurtzi ESP 1,488 1,500 1 2023-10-12
7108 Villa de Santa Brígida ESP 1,488 1,500 1 2016-08-31
7109 Filoproodos Neolea Pentapolis GRE 1,488 1,500 1 1947-11-02
7110 R. Espérance FC Oneux BEL 1,488 1,500 1 1977-07-31
7111 Hyltebruks IF SWE 1,488 1,500 1 2013-05-21
7112 Newcastle Blue Star ENG 1,487 1,500 1 1984-11-17
7113 Șomuzul Preutești ROU 1,487 1,508 2 2016-08-24
7114 Äänekosken Huima FIN 1,487 1,500 1 2014-02-07
7115 Rathnew'86 IRL 1,487 1,500 1 1987-10-10
7116 KuPS Akatemia FIN 1,487 1,500 2 2025-04-16
7117 KWS Alken BEL 1,487 1,500 1 2017-07-30
7118 Changzhou Lanyi CHN 1,487 1,500 1 2023-05-20
7119 CIE Ranch IRL 1,487 1,500 10 2018-08-24
7120 Horden Athletic ENG 1,487 1,500 1 1925-11-28
7121 Fasano ITA 1,487 1,500 1 2019-08-04
7122 ASV Zurndorf AUT 1,487 1,500 1 2009-08-14
7123 FC Termen/Ried-Brig SUI 1,487 1,500 1 1998-08-07
7124 FC Wald SUI 1,487 1,501 2 1999-08-08
7125 RES Gesvoise BEL 1,487 1,502 2 2015-08-02
7126 San Martín de Tucumán ARG 1,487 1,534 44 2026-05-08
7127 Stuttgarter Kickers GER 1,487 1,564 439 2022-10-18
7128 Rangers (London) ENG 1,487 1,500 1 1881-02-09
7129 Huntly SCO 1,487 1,538 44 2026-10-03
7130 FC Küsnacht am Rigi SUI 1,487 1,500 1 1968-09-07
7131 BBB DEN 1,487 1,500 1 2024-08-08
7132 R. Entente Racing Club Amay BEL 1,487 1,521 7 2017-07-30
7133 Kyoto Club JPN 1,487 1,500 1 1950-06-02
7134 Baronie NED 1,487 1,512 5 2009-12-22
7135 Anagennisi Ierapetra GRE 1,487 1,500 1 2021-09-05
7136 SC Großklein AUT 1,487 1,500 1 1996-08-14
7137 KVO Aarschot BEL 1,487 1,500 4 2006-08-06
7138 Voința Buftea ROU 1,487 1,516 2 2015-07-29
7139 Ormeau IRL 1,487 1,500 1 1932-01-09
7140 Vojens DEN 1,487 1,500 1 2014-08-12
7141 Mind House Yokkaichi JPN 1,487 1,500 1 2013-08-31
7142 93rd Highland Regiment ENG 1,487 1,500 1 1891-01-17
7143 Cârcea ROU 1,487 1,500 2 2019-08-14
7144 Siarka Tarnobrzeg POL 1,487 1,541 43 2025-09-24
7145 AS Hermalienne BEL 1,487 1,500 1 2016-07-31
7146 Xiamen Blue Lions CHN 1,487 1,535 26 2006-07-08
7147 Novi Pazar SRB 1,487 1,500 2 2025-08-19
7148 Al Hazem KSA 1,487 1,510 30 2026-09-11
7149 Concord Rangers ENG 1,487 1,500 3 2020-11-07
7150 SC Oberwart AUT 1,487 1,500 3 1971-08-07
page 143 / 292 ‹ prev next ›
Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

We use a session cookie to run the site and, if you allow it, Google Analytics to see which pages are used. No ads, no tracking across sites. Cookie policy