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// Elo ratings 545,526 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,526
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,923 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.71% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,227 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,900 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,097 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,757 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,853 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,179 23.71% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,423 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,603 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.44% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.55% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.83% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.96% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.01% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,168 27.44% 0 — — —
25–49 5,088 25.55% 0 — — —
50–74 5,107 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,611 25.83% 0 — — —
100–149 8,292 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,433 22.96% 0 — — —
200–299 8,407 20.01% 0 — — —
300+ 6,497 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,311 2,311 2026-10-06
2 ENG · England 2,195 2,195 2026-10-06
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,156 2,209 2026-10-05
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,033 2,033 2026-10-06
9 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,018 2,175 2026-10-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 ITA · Italy 1,956 2,095 2026-10-05
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,923 2,036 2026-10-06
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
6101 Olympique Saint-Quentin FRA 1,491 1,503 2 2023-01-08
6102 Unirea Oradea ROU 1,491 1,500 2 1980-12-03
6103 Minerva ENG 1,491 1,510 4 1879-11-15
6104 TT Bern SUI 1,491 1,500 1 1988-08-13
6105 VV Westkapelle BEL 1,491 1,508 6 2017-08-06
6106 Vardø IL NOR 1,491 1,508 2 1986-06-25
6107 Ferroviária BRA 1,491 1,511 15 2026-03-05
6108 SV Markt St. Martin AUT 1,491 1,500 1 2003-08-26
6109 FC Gossau (2I) SUI 1,491 1,500 1 2025-08-16
6110 SK Sifhälla SWE 1,491 1,500 1 2016-08-02
6111 Fremtid NOR 1,491 1,500 1 1962-07-01
6112 FC Sankt Veit AUT 1,491 1,500 1 2001-08-21
6113 SC Veltheim (Winterthur) SUI 1,491 1,519 67 2016-08-10
6114 West Petrom Arad ROU 1,491 1,500 1 1999-09-21
6115 Aabenraa BK DEN 1,491 1,521 5 2023-09-06
6116 FC Gloria La Chaux-de-Fonds SUI 1,491 1,516 2 1942-11-15
6117 Petkimspor TUR 1,491 1,512 2 1999-11-10
6118 FC Dardania Lausanne (2I) SUI 1,491 1,500 1 2025-08-17
6119 FC Bléharies BEL 1,491 1,506 3 2009-08-02
6120 Montreuil FC FRA 1,491 1,508 2 2026-01-10
6121 SV Raika Kuchl AUT 1,491 1,500 1 2022-07-17
6122 Campodarsego ITA 1,491 1,500 2 2018-07-29
6123 FC Marski FIN 1,491 1,505 5 2025-03-16
6124 Pirkkalan Jalkapalloklubi FIN 1,491 1,500 2 2025-02-22
6125 Railway Union IRL 1,491 1,508 2 1987-11-01
6126 Aveley ENG 1,491 1,500 1 1970-11-21
6127 LZS Kwiatkowice POL 1,491 1,514 2 2000-08-09
6128 Portland Timbers U23 USA 1,491 1,517 4 2022-04-07
6129 Vind NOR 1,491 1,500 1 1990-05-24
6130 Ceares ESP 1,491 1,500 1 2021-11-30
6131 US Brainoise BEL 1,491 1,516 6 1966-08-07
6132 Slovkhlib UKR 1,491 1,508 2 2011-09-21
6133 AEK Kavala GRE 1,491 1,525 7 1958-03-30
6134 Brew Saga JPN 1,491 1,500 3 2025-06-11
6135 Club Atlético Claypole ARG 1,491 1,505 7 2026-02-17
6136 LUJA FIN 1,491 1,507 2 2025-03-15
6137 Radnički 1923 SRB 1,491 1,500 2 2025-08-19
6138 US Lusitanos Saint-Maur FRA 1,491 1,500 2 2025-12-20
6139 Apollo FIN 1,491 1,516 2 2011-02-27
6140 Nara Club JPN 1,491 1,508 26 2025-06-11
6141 Orkan Gdynia POL 1,491 1,512 2 1988-08-03
6142 Giulianova ITA 1,491 1,500 1 2009-08-02
6143 United Ploiești ROU 1,491 1,514 2 2022-08-17
6144 Knabstrup IF DEN 1,491 1,508 3 1963-11-24
6145 All Mitsubishi JPN 1,491 1,500 1 1962-05-03
6146 Portuense ESP 1,491 1,508 4 2007-10-10
6147 Hofors AIF SWE 1,491 1,512 2 1950-07-09
6148 Al Fateh KSA 1,491 1,559 49 2026-09-13
6149 Mold ENG 1,491 1,500 1 1925-11-28
6150 FC Bergheim AUT 1,491 1,500 1 2016-07-16
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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