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// Elo ratings 545,518 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,518
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,915 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.71% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,899 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,097 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,852 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,178 23.71% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,422 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,603 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.44% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.55% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.83% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.96% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.01% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,168 27.44% 0 — — —
25–49 5,088 25.55% 0 — — —
50–74 5,107 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,611 25.83% 0 — — —
100–149 8,292 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,433 22.96% 0 — — —
200–299 8,407 20.01% 0 — — —
300+ 6,497 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,311 2,311 2026-10-06
2 ENG · England 2,195 2,195 2026-10-06
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,156 2,209 2026-10-05
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,033 2,033 2026-10-06
9 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,018 2,175 2026-10-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 ITA · Italy 1,956 2,095 2026-10-05
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,923 2,036 2026-10-06
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,598 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
5951 Freie Turner Braunschweig GER 1,491 1,500 1 2014-08-16
5952 Jong PSV NED 1,491 1,500 2 2020-08-17
5953 SVG Austria Lustenau/Dornbirn AUT 1,491 1,500 2 1965-09-01
5954 Oașul Negrești ROU 1,491 1,500 1 2003-10-01
5955 Odra Chojna POL 1,491 1,501 2 2004-08-03
5956 SK Bree BEL 1,491 1,557 59 2015-07-25
5957 Ringebu-Fåvang FK NOR 1,491 1,500 1 2006-05-10
5958 EVV Echt NED 1,491 1,503 16 2026-09-22
5959 Politiets IF DEN 1,491 1,508 2 1963-09-08
5960 Episkopi GRE 1,491 1,513 13 2024-09-08
5961 SK Brunn/Gebirge AUT 1,491 1,510 3 1946-03-10
5962 FC Bauma SUI 1,491 1,500 3 1966-10-01
5963 Nadwiślan Góra POL 1,491 1,513 2 2015-07-28
5964 Brooklyn Dublin IRL 1,491 1,512 3 1925-01-17
5965 UDA Soccer USA 1,491 1,508 2 2023-04-04
5966 Ampelokipoi GRE 1,491 1,500 1 1956-02-05
5967 Ahlafors SWE 1,491 1,500 2 2023-06-08
5968 Pont de Cheruy FRA 1,491 1,500 1 2007-01-06
5969 Daring Club de Cointe BEL 1,491 1,500 2 2009-07-31
5970 Chernomorets Burgas BUL 1,491 1,514 2 1989-08-30
5971 FC Souvret BEL 1,491 1,514 7 1973-08-05
5972 Crystal Palace (1861) ENG 1,491 1,518 12 1875-12-11
5973 Club Defensores de Pronunciamiento ARG 1,491 1,500 3 2021-02-10
5974 Kormil UKR 1,491 1,500 1 2025-08-24
5975 Reading Abbey ENG 1,490 1,516 6 1881-11-26
5976 RFC Warnant BEL 1,490 1,505 7 2018-07-29
5977 Club Rivadavia ARG 1,490 1,512 3 2012-11-21
5978 Saumur FRA 1,490 1,500 6 2026-08-08
5979 FC Schwamendingen SUI 1,490 1,505 19 2002-08-25
5980 Oţelul Dr. Petru Groza ROU 1,490 1,500 1 1988-02-28
5981 Kaarinan Reipas FIN 1,490 1,508 2 2014-02-11
5982 Associação Atlética Anapolina BRA 1,490 1,500 2 2015-04-14
5983 Hospitalet ESP 1,490 1,522 11 2026-08-08
5984 Keravnos Rethymno GRE 1,490 1,526 6 1952-01-20
5985 Ponteva FIN 1,490 1,512 2 2004-06-16
5986 Arkonia Szczecin POL 1,490 1,534 12 1986-07-27
5987 Żbik Nasielsk POL 1,490 1,515 2 1998-08-11
5988 RUS Gold Star Liège BEL 1,490 1,500 1 2015-07-26
5989 Noja ESP 1,490 1,500 2 2026-10-04
5990 Boston City FC USA 1,490 1,502 2 2017-05-17
5991 SV St. Margarethen AUT 1,490 1,508 2 1994-09-10
5992 RCS Verlaine BEL 1,490 1,518 28 2019-09-25
5993 Kagoshima University JPN 1,490 1,500 1 1954-05-22
5994 Al Qala KSA 1,490 1,519 6 1984-03-29
5995 YuKSA UKR 1,490 1,542 9 2026-08-22
5996 KKP FIN 1,490 1,500 3 2026-02-22
5997 Odra Bytom Odrzański POL 1,490 1,500 1 2025-09-25
5998 FC Red Star Haasdonk BEL 1,490 1,502 5 2001-08-05
5999 Unistars 77 Aigle SUI 1,490 1,513 2 1979-08-11
6000 RJ Entente Binchoise BEL 1,490 1,542 10 2018-07-29
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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