How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,518

Teams rated14,934

Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25

Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,915 matches

drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	With odds	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	67,226	27.39%	22,161	29.39%	28.79%	-1.08%
25–49	72,899	26.31%	21,925	28.62%	28.66%	-3.14%
50–74	79,097	25.02%	20,405	28.41%	28.34%	-2.77%
75–99	64,754	25.22%	18,710	28.04%	27.91%	-2.60%
100–149	86,852	25.25%	29,683	26.91%	26.93%	-3.11%
150–199	53,178	23.71%	20,326	25.50%	25.26%	-2.52%
200–299	49,422	20.56%	19,016	21.77%	22.31%	-5.79%
300+	22,487	13.95%	8,643	14.52%	16.00%	-12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,603 matches

drew How often each rating gap actually drew.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	5,168	27.44%	—	—	—
25–49	5,088	25.55%	—	—	—
50–74	5,107	26.87%	—	—	—
75–99	4,611	25.83%	—	—	—
100–149	8,292	24.60%	—	—	—
150–199	6,433	22.96%	—	—	—
200–299	8,407	20.01%	—	—	—
300+	6,497	12.37%	—	—	—

Top clubs by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	GER · FC Bayern München	2,315	2,328	2026-09-18
2	ENG · Manchester City	2,253	2,331	2026-09-20
3	ENG · Arsenal	2,244	2,293	2026-09-19
4	ESP · Barcelona	2,209	2,243	2026-09-19
5	FRA · Paris Saint-Germain	2,154	2,231	2026-09-20
6	ESP · Real Madrid	2,139	2,237	2026-09-20
7	ITA · Inter Milan	2,127	2,202	2026-10-03
8	NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt	2,122	2,143	2026-10-01
9	ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion	2,103	2,103	2026-09-19
10	ENG · Liverpool	2,098	2,285	2026-09-20
11	GER · Borussia Dortmund	2,091	2,116	2026-09-19
12	ENG · Aston Villa	2,077	2,162	2026-10-02
13	NOR · Viking FK	2,072	2,097	2026-10-01
14	ENG · Brentford	2,068	2,068	2026-09-18
15	ENG · Manchester United	2,065	2,147	2026-09-20
16	ENG · Bournemouth	2,058	2,073	2026-09-20
17	GER · Bayer Leverkusen	2,055	2,190	2026-09-20
18	POR · Sporting CP	2,054	2,145	2026-09-19
19	ESP · Atlético Madrid	2,042	2,134	2026-09-20
20	ENG · Leeds United	2,030	2,033	2026-09-20
21	POR · SL Benfica	2,026	2,071	2026-09-20
22	ITA · AS Roma	2,024	2,070	2026-09-19
23	ENG · Chelsea	2,022	2,185	2026-09-18
24	GER · VfB Stuttgart	2,018	2,050	2026-10-01
25	BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2,018	2,037	2026-09-20
26	POR · Porto	2,014	2,086	2026-10-02
27	ENG · Newcastle United	2,014	2,141	2026-09-19
28	RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg	2,010	2,011	2026-10-04
29	ENG · Everton	2,007	2,009	2026-09-19
30	ITA · Juventus	1,996	2,200	2026-10-02

Top national teams by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	ESP · Spain	2,311	2,311	2026-10-06
2	ENG · England	2,195	2,195	2026-10-06
3	ARG · Argentina	2,181	2,198	2026-07-19
4	FRA · France	2,156	2,209	2026-10-05
5	POR · Portugal	2,087	2,088	2026-10-04
6	MAR · Morocco	2,083	2,106	2026-07-09
7	COL · Colombia	2,046	2,115	2026-07-07
8	SUI · Switzerland	2,033	2,033	2026-10-06
9	NED · Netherlands	2,023	2,177	2026-10-04
10	JPN · Japan	2,022	2,063	2026-06-29
11	BRA · Brazil	2,021	2,212	2026-07-05
12	BEL · Belgium	2,018	2,175	2026-10-05
13	MEX · Mexico	2,015	2,054	2026-07-05
14	NOR · Norway	1,972	2,053	2026-10-04
15	GER · Germany	1,964	2,254	2026-10-04
16	ITA · Italy	1,956	2,095	2026-10-05
17	NGA · Nigeria	1,950	1,961	2026-06-10
18	AUS · Australia	1,949	2,002	2026-07-03
19	IRN · Iran	1,934	2,017	2026-06-26
20	ECU · Ecuador	1,932	1,977	2026-06-30
21	CRO · Croatia	1,923	2,036	2026-10-06
22	SEN · Senegal	1,922	1,990	2026-07-01
23	AUT · Austria	1,916	1,956	2026-10-04
24	DEN · Denmark	1,908	2,018	2026-10-04
25	ALG · Algeria	1,908	1,961	2026-07-02
26	KOR · South Korea	1,900	1,985	2026-06-24
27	EGY · Egypt	1,888	1,962	2026-07-07
28	CIV · Ivory Coast	1,887	2,007	2026-06-30
29	URU · Uruguay	1,881	2,053	2026-06-26
30	USA · United States	1,880	2,011	2026-07-06

All rated teams 14,598 teams

Type Country

Team

▸ Reset

#	Team	Country	Rating	Peak	Matches	Last match
5601	Union Hutoise FC	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1926-08-22
5602	VC Asse Ter Heide	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1978-07-30
5603	VC Zevergem Sportief	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	2009-07-26
5604	Voorwaarts Duisburg	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1982-08-01
5605	FC Antelope	JPN	1,492	1,500	1	2005-09-17
5606	Haguro High School	JPN	1,492	1,500	1	2013-08-31
5607	Sendai Club	JPN	1,492	1,500	1	1927-10-28
5608	Nantong Home Textile City	CHN	1,492	1,500	1	2026-03-15
5609	Ningxia Hengjuda	CHN	1,492	1,500	1	2018-12-23
5610	Sichuan Jiannanchun	CHN	1,492	1,500	1	2018-12-23
5611	Xiamen Nanxun	CHN	1,492	1,500	1	2017-11-12
5612	Rize Güneşspor	TUR	1,492	1,500	1	1965-09-12
5613	Yücespor	TUR	1,492	1,500	1	1991-09-25
5614	Donsö IS	SWE	1,492	1,500	1	2000-08-23
5615	Tillberga IK	SWE	1,492	1,500	1	2002-04-14
5616	Triangelns IK	SWE	1,492	1,500	1	2015-08-01
5617	Åhus Horna BK	SWE	1,492	1,500	1	2000-08-23
5618	Cahir Park	IRL	1,492	1,500	1	1930-01-05
5619	Dungarvan	IRL	1,492	1,500	1	1987-10-10
5620	Leeside	IRL	1,492	1,500	1	2016-04-16
5621	Tromond College	IRL	1,492	1,500	1	1987-10-10
5622	RKVV Zwalu VFC	NED	1,492	1,500	1	2026-09-02
5623	Unión Güímar	ESP	1,492	1,500	1	2026-09-27
5624	Skala Morshyn	UKR	1,492	1,500	1	2010-08-18
5625	Åsa/Hof Fotball	NOR	1,492	1,500	1	1927-08-01
5626	Contra Costa FC	USA	1,492	1,500	1	2022-03-23
5627	Sichuan Leaders	CHN	1,492	1,513	2	2014-04-16
5628	Niğdespor	TUR	1,492	1,520	6	1993-10-06
5629	Amfiali	GRE	1,492	1,500	1	1975-11-02
5630	Victoria Brănești	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2010-09-21
5631	Colo-Colo	CHI	1,492	1,500	1	1991-12-08
5632	Beijing Bodao	CHN	1,492	1,500	1	2000-05-07
5633	Fútbol Club Ferro Carril Sud	ARG	1,492	1,500	2	2012-10-25
5634	Club Atlético Germinal	ARG	1,492	1,500	1	2012-10-24
5635	Club Atlético Maronese	ARG	1,492	1,500	2	2012-10-24
5636	Caudal Deportivo	ESP	1,492	1,516	4	2025-10-29
5637	Fontenay-le-Comte	FRA	1,492	1,500	1	2008-12-13
5638	Unión Zona Norte	ESP	1,492	1,500	1	2023-10-12
5639	Maccabi Paris	FRA	1,492	1,500	1	2015-12-06
5640	Keravnos Angelochori	GRE	1,492	1,500	1	2023-08-30
5641	Amitie SC Kyoto	JPN	1,492	1,500	1	2017-04-23
5642	WFC Semperit Wien	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	1963-02-09
5643	AS Aiud	ROU	1,492	1,500	4	1966-05-11
5644	Voetbalkring Zepperen	BEL	1,492	1,508	5	1982-08-08
5645	Sporting Eizeringen	BEL	1,492	1,503	3	2012-08-05
5646	Spartak-2 Yerevan	ARM	1,492	1,500	2	2002-04-03
5647	FK Eik Tønsberg	NOR	1,492	1,678	549	2026-08-22
5648	ASKÖ Stinatz	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	2010-07-30
5649	Inter Dorohoi	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2015-07-15
5650	Nikiforos Florina	GRE	1,492	1,510	3	1968-06-16

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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	Margin removed
Home win	2.00	50.0%	48.3%
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.6%
Away win	4.00	25.0%	24.1%
Total	—	103.6%	100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.