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// Elo ratings 545,518 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,518
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,915 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.71% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,899 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,097 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,852 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,178 23.71% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,422 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,603 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.44% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.55% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.83% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.96% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.01% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,168 27.44% 0 — — —
25–49 5,088 25.55% 0 — — —
50–74 5,107 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,611 25.83% 0 — — —
100–149 8,292 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,433 22.96% 0 — — —
200–299 8,407 20.01% 0 — — —
300+ 6,497 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,311 2,311 2026-10-06
2 ENG · England 2,195 2,195 2026-10-06
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,156 2,209 2026-10-05
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,033 2,033 2026-10-06
9 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,018 2,175 2026-10-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 ITA · Italy 1,956 2,095 2026-10-05
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,923 2,036 2026-10-06
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
5601 CD Gévora ESP 1,492 1,500 2 2024-10-31
5602 Gloria Albești ROU 1,492 1,500 1 2022-08-17
5603 TSG Thannhausen GER 1,492 1,500 1 2006-09-09
5604 Asteras Magoula GRE 1,492 1,516 8 2014-01-23
5605 FC Serrières NE SUI 1,492 1,500 2 2009-10-17
5606 FC Culpa DEN 1,492 1,511 2 2022-08-31
5607 USK Dovbush Chernivtsi UKR 1,492 1,500 1 2026-08-09
5608 Guarani Futebol Clube BRA 1,492 1,502 8 2026-02-25
5609 Axi Arena ROU 1,492 1,500 1 2026-07-29
5610 Czarni Witnica POL 1,492 1,500 2 1998-07-24
5611 Zatoka Braniewo POL 1,492 1,517 4 1997-08-27
5612 Anadoluhisarı TUR 1,492 1,510 8 1996-10-02
5613 Sollentuna FK SWE 1,492 1,525 31 2025-06-18
5614 Brindisi ITA 1,492 1,527 38 2024-04-27
5615 Korona Ostrołęka POL 1,492 1,500 1 2005-08-15
5616 Bregel Sport BEL 1,492 1,500 1 2018-07-29
5617 Asteras Rethymno GRE 1,492 1,500 1 1949-10-06
5618 Rissho University JPN 1,492 1,500 1 2022-05-22
5619 Okzhetpes Kokshetau KAZ 1,492 1,515 2 2009-07-29
5620 Haslingden ENG 1,492 1,500 1 1882-12-02
5621 Inhulets Petrove UKR 1,492 1,577 128 2026-08-22
5622 Carpendolo ITA 1,492 1,500 1 2006-08-20
5623 1. FC Phönix Lübeck GER 1,492 1,500 2 2026-08-23
5624 Rätia Bludenz AUT 1,492 1,514 6 1977-05-03
5625 FC Houdeng BEL 1,492 1,500 2 2001-08-19
5626 K. Stade Leuven BEL 1,492 1,582 51 2001-08-19
5627 Operário Futebol Clube BRA 1,492 1,500 8 2026-03-12
5628 Rapid Cluj ROU 1,492 1,500 1 1959-11-29
5629 FC.Verbr.Meerhout BEL 1,492 1,521 3 2002-08-04
5630 Krasyliv UKR 1,492 1,500 1 2005-08-13
5631 FC Uznach SUI 1,492 1,518 28 2010-09-18
5632 Palmira Odesa UKR 1,492 1,504 6 2026-08-23
5633 Atromitos Patras GRE 1,492 1,500 1 2019-09-15
5634 Avântul Valea Mărului ROU 1,492 1,500 3 2017-08-22
5635 Çanspor TUR 1,492 1,500 1 1998-09-02
5636 Metalurh-2 Donetsk UKR 1,492 1,500 1 1997-07-18
5637 Laaksolahden Jalkapalloseura FIN 1,492 1,528 6 2024-03-08
5638 Töölön Vesa FIN 1,492 1,509 14 2026-02-15
5639 Pafawag Wrocław POL 1,492 1,500 4 1986-07-27
5640 FC St-Louis Bouillon BEL 1,492 1,500 1 1926-08-29
5641 Isparta Karagücü TUR 1,492 1,500 1 1962-09-02
5642 FC Red Bull Salzburg Juniors AUT 1,492 1,500 1 2012-04-11
5643 Polizei/Feuerwehr Wien AUT 1,492 1,500 1 2001-08-21
5644 Akilles FIN 1,492 1,523 5 2025-03-17
5645 Olympia Wijgmaal BEL 1,492 1,508 2 2009-08-09
5646 Fermoy IRL 1,492 1,500 2 1995-01-28
5647 FC Zlín CZE 1,492 1,524 10 2017-11-04
5648 Olympique Strasbourg FRA 1,492 1,500 1 2019-01-06
5649 FC Diepoldsau SUI 1,492 1,513 3 2000-08-12
5650 Old Harrovians ENG 1,492 1,563 21 1887-11-05
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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